Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network,...

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Autores principales: Wu, Yao, Li, Shanshan, Zhao, Qi, Wen, Bo, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Overcenco, Ala, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Entezari, Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Zanobetti, Antonella, Analitis, Antonis, Zeka, Ariana, Tobias, Aurelio, Nunes, Baltazar, Alahmad, Barrak, Armstrong, Ben, Forsberg, Bertil, Pan, Shih-Chun, Íñiguez, Carmen, Ameling, Caroline, De la Cruz Valencia, César, Åström, Christofer, Houthuijs, Danny, Dung, Do Van, Royé, Dominic, Indermitte, Ene, Lavigne, Eric, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Acquaotta, Fiorella, de’Donato, Francesca, Rao, Shilpa, Sera, Francesco, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Kan, Haidong, Orru, Hans, Kim, Ho, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Kyselý, Jan, Madureira, Joana, Schwartz, Joel, Jaakkola, Jouni J K, Katsouyanni, Klea, Hurtado Diaz, Magali, Ragettli, Martina S, Hashizume, Masahiro, Pascal, Mathilde, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, Ryti, Niilo, Scovronick, Noah, Michelozzi, Paola, Correa, Patricia Matus, Goodman, Patrick, Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario, Abrutzky, Rosana, Osorio, Samuel, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Colistro, Valentina, Huber, Veronika, Lee, Whanhee, Seposo, Xerxes, Honda, Yasushi, Guo, Yue Leon, Bell, Michelle L, Guo, Yuming
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9177161/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35550080
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00073-0
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author Wu, Yao
Li, Shanshan
Zhao, Qi
Wen, Bo
Gasparrini, Antonio
Tong, Shilu
Overcenco, Ala
Urban, Aleš
Schneider, Alexandra
Entezari, Alireza
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
Zanobetti, Antonella
Analitis, Antonis
Zeka, Ariana
Tobias, Aurelio
Nunes, Baltazar
Alahmad, Barrak
Armstrong, Ben
Forsberg, Bertil
Pan, Shih-Chun
Íñiguez, Carmen
Ameling, Caroline
De la Cruz Valencia, César
Åström, Christofer
Houthuijs, Danny
Dung, Do Van
Royé, Dominic
Indermitte, Ene
Lavigne, Eric
Mayvaneh, Fatemeh
Acquaotta, Fiorella
de’Donato, Francesca
Rao, Shilpa
Sera, Francesco
Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
Kan, Haidong
Orru, Hans
Kim, Ho
Holobaca, Iulian-Horia
Kyselý, Jan
Madureira, Joana
Schwartz, Joel
Jaakkola, Jouni J K
Katsouyanni, Klea
Hurtado Diaz, Magali
Ragettli, Martina S
Hashizume, Masahiro
Pascal, Mathilde
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline
Ortega, Nicolás Valdés
Ryti, Niilo
Scovronick, Noah
Michelozzi, Paola
Correa, Patricia Matus
Goodman, Patrick
Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario
Abrutzky, Rosana
Osorio, Samuel
Dang, Tran Ngoc
Colistro, Valentina
Huber, Veronika
Lee, Whanhee
Seposo, Xerxes
Honda, Yasushi
Guo, Yue Leon
Bell, Michelle L
Guo, Yuming
author_facet Wu, Yao
Li, Shanshan
Zhao, Qi
Wen, Bo
Gasparrini, Antonio
Tong, Shilu
Overcenco, Ala
Urban, Aleš
Schneider, Alexandra
Entezari, Alireza
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
Zanobetti, Antonella
Analitis, Antonis
Zeka, Ariana
Tobias, Aurelio
Nunes, Baltazar
Alahmad, Barrak
Armstrong, Ben
Forsberg, Bertil
Pan, Shih-Chun
Íñiguez, Carmen
Ameling, Caroline
De la Cruz Valencia, César
Åström, Christofer
Houthuijs, Danny
Dung, Do Van
Royé, Dominic
Indermitte, Ene
Lavigne, Eric
Mayvaneh, Fatemeh
Acquaotta, Fiorella
de’Donato, Francesca
Rao, Shilpa
Sera, Francesco
Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
Kan, Haidong
Orru, Hans
Kim, Ho
Holobaca, Iulian-Horia
Kyselý, Jan
Madureira, Joana
Schwartz, Joel
Jaakkola, Jouni J K
Katsouyanni, Klea
Hurtado Diaz, Magali
Ragettli, Martina S
Hashizume, Masahiro
Pascal, Mathilde
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline
Ortega, Nicolás Valdés
Ryti, Niilo
Scovronick, Noah
Michelozzi, Paola
Correa, Patricia Matus
Goodman, Patrick
Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario
Abrutzky, Rosana
Osorio, Samuel
Dang, Tran Ngoc
Colistro, Valentina
Huber, Veronika
Lee, Whanhee
Seposo, Xerxes
Honda, Yasushi
Guo, Yue Leon
Bell, Michelle L
Guo, Yuming
author_sort Wu, Yao
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901–2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2–4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7–5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3–10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2–5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9–4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
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spelling pubmed-91771612022-06-08 Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study Wu, Yao Li, Shanshan Zhao, Qi Wen, Bo Gasparrini, Antonio Tong, Shilu Overcenco, Ala Urban, Aleš Schneider, Alexandra Entezari, Alireza Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Zanobetti, Antonella Analitis, Antonis Zeka, Ariana Tobias, Aurelio Nunes, Baltazar Alahmad, Barrak Armstrong, Ben Forsberg, Bertil Pan, Shih-Chun Íñiguez, Carmen Ameling, Caroline De la Cruz Valencia, César Åström, Christofer Houthuijs, Danny Dung, Do Van Royé, Dominic Indermitte, Ene Lavigne, Eric Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Acquaotta, Fiorella de’Donato, Francesca Rao, Shilpa Sera, Francesco Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel Kan, Haidong Orru, Hans Kim, Ho Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Kyselý, Jan Madureira, Joana Schwartz, Joel Jaakkola, Jouni J K Katsouyanni, Klea Hurtado Diaz, Magali Ragettli, Martina S Hashizume, Masahiro Pascal, Mathilde de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline Ortega, Nicolás Valdés Ryti, Niilo Scovronick, Noah Michelozzi, Paola Correa, Patricia Matus Goodman, Patrick Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Abrutzky, Rosana Osorio, Samuel Dang, Tran Ngoc Colistro, Valentina Huber, Veronika Lee, Whanhee Seposo, Xerxes Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Bell, Michelle L Guo, Yuming Lancet Planet Health Article BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901–2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2–4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7–5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3–10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2–5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9–4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council. 2022-05 /pmc/articles/PMC9177161/ /pubmed/35550080 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00073-0 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
spellingShingle Article
Wu, Yao
Li, Shanshan
Zhao, Qi
Wen, Bo
Gasparrini, Antonio
Tong, Shilu
Overcenco, Ala
Urban, Aleš
Schneider, Alexandra
Entezari, Alireza
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
Zanobetti, Antonella
Analitis, Antonis
Zeka, Ariana
Tobias, Aurelio
Nunes, Baltazar
Alahmad, Barrak
Armstrong, Ben
Forsberg, Bertil
Pan, Shih-Chun
Íñiguez, Carmen
Ameling, Caroline
De la Cruz Valencia, César
Åström, Christofer
Houthuijs, Danny
Dung, Do Van
Royé, Dominic
Indermitte, Ene
Lavigne, Eric
Mayvaneh, Fatemeh
Acquaotta, Fiorella
de’Donato, Francesca
Rao, Shilpa
Sera, Francesco
Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
Kan, Haidong
Orru, Hans
Kim, Ho
Holobaca, Iulian-Horia
Kyselý, Jan
Madureira, Joana
Schwartz, Joel
Jaakkola, Jouni J K
Katsouyanni, Klea
Hurtado Diaz, Magali
Ragettli, Martina S
Hashizume, Masahiro
Pascal, Mathilde
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline
Ortega, Nicolás Valdés
Ryti, Niilo
Scovronick, Noah
Michelozzi, Paola
Correa, Patricia Matus
Goodman, Patrick
Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario
Abrutzky, Rosana
Osorio, Samuel
Dang, Tran Ngoc
Colistro, Valentina
Huber, Veronika
Lee, Whanhee
Seposo, Xerxes
Honda, Yasushi
Guo, Yue Leon
Bell, Michelle L
Guo, Yuming
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study
title Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study
title_full Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study
title_fullStr Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study
title_full_unstemmed Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study
title_short Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study
title_sort global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9177161/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35550080
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00073-0
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