Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study
BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network,...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9177161/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35550080 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00073-0 |
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author | Wu, Yao Li, Shanshan Zhao, Qi Wen, Bo Gasparrini, Antonio Tong, Shilu Overcenco, Ala Urban, Aleš Schneider, Alexandra Entezari, Alireza Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Zanobetti, Antonella Analitis, Antonis Zeka, Ariana Tobias, Aurelio Nunes, Baltazar Alahmad, Barrak Armstrong, Ben Forsberg, Bertil Pan, Shih-Chun Íñiguez, Carmen Ameling, Caroline De la Cruz Valencia, César Åström, Christofer Houthuijs, Danny Dung, Do Van Royé, Dominic Indermitte, Ene Lavigne, Eric Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Acquaotta, Fiorella de’Donato, Francesca Rao, Shilpa Sera, Francesco Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel Kan, Haidong Orru, Hans Kim, Ho Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Kyselý, Jan Madureira, Joana Schwartz, Joel Jaakkola, Jouni J K Katsouyanni, Klea Hurtado Diaz, Magali Ragettli, Martina S Hashizume, Masahiro Pascal, Mathilde de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline Ortega, Nicolás Valdés Ryti, Niilo Scovronick, Noah Michelozzi, Paola Correa, Patricia Matus Goodman, Patrick Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Abrutzky, Rosana Osorio, Samuel Dang, Tran Ngoc Colistro, Valentina Huber, Veronika Lee, Whanhee Seposo, Xerxes Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Bell, Michelle L Guo, Yuming |
author_facet | Wu, Yao Li, Shanshan Zhao, Qi Wen, Bo Gasparrini, Antonio Tong, Shilu Overcenco, Ala Urban, Aleš Schneider, Alexandra Entezari, Alireza Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Zanobetti, Antonella Analitis, Antonis Zeka, Ariana Tobias, Aurelio Nunes, Baltazar Alahmad, Barrak Armstrong, Ben Forsberg, Bertil Pan, Shih-Chun Íñiguez, Carmen Ameling, Caroline De la Cruz Valencia, César Åström, Christofer Houthuijs, Danny Dung, Do Van Royé, Dominic Indermitte, Ene Lavigne, Eric Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Acquaotta, Fiorella de’Donato, Francesca Rao, Shilpa Sera, Francesco Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel Kan, Haidong Orru, Hans Kim, Ho Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Kyselý, Jan Madureira, Joana Schwartz, Joel Jaakkola, Jouni J K Katsouyanni, Klea Hurtado Diaz, Magali Ragettli, Martina S Hashizume, Masahiro Pascal, Mathilde de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline Ortega, Nicolás Valdés Ryti, Niilo Scovronick, Noah Michelozzi, Paola Correa, Patricia Matus Goodman, Patrick Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Abrutzky, Rosana Osorio, Samuel Dang, Tran Ngoc Colistro, Valentina Huber, Veronika Lee, Whanhee Seposo, Xerxes Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Bell, Michelle L Guo, Yuming |
author_sort | Wu, Yao |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901–2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2–4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7–5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3–10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2–5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9–4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9177161 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-91771612022-06-08 Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study Wu, Yao Li, Shanshan Zhao, Qi Wen, Bo Gasparrini, Antonio Tong, Shilu Overcenco, Ala Urban, Aleš Schneider, Alexandra Entezari, Alireza Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Zanobetti, Antonella Analitis, Antonis Zeka, Ariana Tobias, Aurelio Nunes, Baltazar Alahmad, Barrak Armstrong, Ben Forsberg, Bertil Pan, Shih-Chun Íñiguez, Carmen Ameling, Caroline De la Cruz Valencia, César Åström, Christofer Houthuijs, Danny Dung, Do Van Royé, Dominic Indermitte, Ene Lavigne, Eric Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Acquaotta, Fiorella de’Donato, Francesca Rao, Shilpa Sera, Francesco Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel Kan, Haidong Orru, Hans Kim, Ho Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Kyselý, Jan Madureira, Joana Schwartz, Joel Jaakkola, Jouni J K Katsouyanni, Klea Hurtado Diaz, Magali Ragettli, Martina S Hashizume, Masahiro Pascal, Mathilde de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline Ortega, Nicolás Valdés Ryti, Niilo Scovronick, Noah Michelozzi, Paola Correa, Patricia Matus Goodman, Patrick Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Abrutzky, Rosana Osorio, Samuel Dang, Tran Ngoc Colistro, Valentina Huber, Veronika Lee, Whanhee Seposo, Xerxes Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Bell, Michelle L Guo, Yuming Lancet Planet Health Article BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901–2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2–4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7–5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3–10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2–5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9–4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council. 2022-05 /pmc/articles/PMC9177161/ /pubmed/35550080 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00073-0 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. |
spellingShingle | Article Wu, Yao Li, Shanshan Zhao, Qi Wen, Bo Gasparrini, Antonio Tong, Shilu Overcenco, Ala Urban, Aleš Schneider, Alexandra Entezari, Alireza Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Zanobetti, Antonella Analitis, Antonis Zeka, Ariana Tobias, Aurelio Nunes, Baltazar Alahmad, Barrak Armstrong, Ben Forsberg, Bertil Pan, Shih-Chun Íñiguez, Carmen Ameling, Caroline De la Cruz Valencia, César Åström, Christofer Houthuijs, Danny Dung, Do Van Royé, Dominic Indermitte, Ene Lavigne, Eric Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Acquaotta, Fiorella de’Donato, Francesca Rao, Shilpa Sera, Francesco Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel Kan, Haidong Orru, Hans Kim, Ho Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Kyselý, Jan Madureira, Joana Schwartz, Joel Jaakkola, Jouni J K Katsouyanni, Klea Hurtado Diaz, Magali Ragettli, Martina S Hashizume, Masahiro Pascal, Mathilde de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline Ortega, Nicolás Valdés Ryti, Niilo Scovronick, Noah Michelozzi, Paola Correa, Patricia Matus Goodman, Patrick Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Abrutzky, Rosana Osorio, Samuel Dang, Tran Ngoc Colistro, Valentina Huber, Veronika Lee, Whanhee Seposo, Xerxes Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Bell, Michelle L Guo, Yuming Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study |
title | Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study |
title_full | Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study |
title_fullStr | Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study |
title_full_unstemmed | Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study |
title_short | Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study |
title_sort | global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9177161/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35550080 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00073-0 |
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