Analysis of the vulnerability estimation and neighbor value prediction in autonomous systems

The security within autonomous systems (AS)s is one of the important measures to keep network users safe and stable from the various type of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks. Similar to the other existing attack types Internet control message protocol (ICMP) based attacks are remained open challenge on the Internet environment. In this study, we have proposed a method to estimate the vulnerability of 600 AS provider edge (PE) routers by sending ICMP packets and predicted AS neighbor values using least square regression (LSR) approach. The results of our study show that 265 AS PE routers are vulnerable due to ICMP flood attack from the 600 ASs which were analyzed. Additionally, we have predicted that about 60% of total AS neighbors will be reduced in the next 3 years. Our results indicate that some ASs still did not deploy the firewall system in the boundary of their networks. Similarly, we also observed that the majority of ASs which expected to have less neighbor values in the next 3 years is due to change their routing paths to find adjacent paths.