ZIP Code-Level Estimation of Air Quality and Health Risk Due to Particulate Matter Pollution in New York City

[Image: see text] Exposure to PM(2.5) is associated with hundreds of premature mortalities every year in New York City (NYC). Current air quality and health impact assessment tools provide county-wide estimates but are inadequate for assessing health benefits at neighborhood scales, especially for evaluating policy options related to energy efficiency or climate goals. We developed a new ZIP Code-Level Air Pollution Policy Assessment (ZAPPA) tool for NYC by integrating two reduced form models—Community Air Quality Tools (C-TOOLS) and the Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA)—that propagate emissions changes to estimate air pollution exposures and health benefits. ZAPPA leverages custom higher resolution inputs for emissions, health incidences, and population. It, then, enables rapid policy evaluation with localized ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA)-level analysis of potential health and monetary benefits stemming from air quality management decisions. We evaluated the modeled 2016 PM(2.5) values against observed values at EPA and NYCCAS monitors, finding good model performance (FAC2, 1; NMSE, 0.05). We, then, applied ZAPPA to assess PM(2.5) reduction-related health benefits from five illustrative policy scenarios in NYC focused on (1) commercial cooking, (2) residential and commercial building fuel regulations, (3) fleet electrification, (4) congestion pricing in Manhattan, and (5) these four combined as a “citywide sustainable policy implementation” scenario. The citywide scenario estimates an average reduction in PM(2.5) of 0.9 μg/m(3). This change translates to avoiding 210–475 deaths, 340 asthma emergency department visits, and monetized health benefits worth $2B to $5B annually, with significant variation across NYC’s 192 ZCTAs. ZCTA-level assessments can help prioritize interventions in neighborhoods that would see the most health benefits from air pollution reduction. ZAPPA can provide quantitative insights on health and monetary benefits for future sustainability policy development in NYC.