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Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period

The transformation of dietary structure brought about by economic development in populous countries is expected to trigger an increase in grain demand, which will put enormous pressure on the grain supply in these nations and even globally. We simulated nine demand scenarios for 2020–2050 based on C...

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Autores principales: Wang, Xiang, Qiang, Wenli, Niu, Shuwen, Growe, Anna, Yan, Simin, Tian, Nan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9180600/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35681316
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11111566
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author Wang, Xiang
Qiang, Wenli
Niu, Shuwen
Growe, Anna
Yan, Simin
Tian, Nan
author_facet Wang, Xiang
Qiang, Wenli
Niu, Shuwen
Growe, Anna
Yan, Simin
Tian, Nan
author_sort Wang, Xiang
collection PubMed
description The transformation of dietary structure brought about by economic development in populous countries is expected to trigger an increase in grain demand, which will put enormous pressure on the grain supply in these nations and even globally. We simulated nine demand scenarios for 2020–2050 based on China’s dataset for 15 kinds of grains from 1961–2018. The results show that the maximum difference between the predicted grain demand is 323.8 Mt, equal to the total grain consumption of approximately 600 million Chinese people in one year. To capture which demand scenarios will be met when grain productivity gradually improves within reasonable ranges, we present three projections from the production side. In particular, Projection 1 (P1), which maintains productivity at the current level, only fulfills the projected demand for Scenarios 1-LL, 2-LM, 4-ML, and 7-HL and falls short of the maximum value (Scenario 9-HH) by 117 Mt, which requires an additional 250,000 ha of arable land resources to fill the gap. After raising the preset value of grain yield, the productivity of Projection 2 in turn satisfies the demand scenario 5-MM. When both set variables (grain yields and arable area) increase simultaneously, the output of Projection 3 increases by 15.3% over P1. However, it still lags behind the demand of 68 million tons in Scenario 9-HH, thus implying uncertainty in China’s vision of meeting the goal of 95% grain self-sufficiency. Rather than pursuing a single outcome, we discuss multiple possibilities for China’s future grain balance and emphasize the adjusting and compensating role of grain trade and storage in the whole system. Ultimately, this paper calls for a better understanding of the supply–demand gap therein and its future trends to support national grain security as well as global sustainable food policies.
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spelling pubmed-91806002022-06-10 Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period Wang, Xiang Qiang, Wenli Niu, Shuwen Growe, Anna Yan, Simin Tian, Nan Foods Article The transformation of dietary structure brought about by economic development in populous countries is expected to trigger an increase in grain demand, which will put enormous pressure on the grain supply in these nations and even globally. We simulated nine demand scenarios for 2020–2050 based on China’s dataset for 15 kinds of grains from 1961–2018. The results show that the maximum difference between the predicted grain demand is 323.8 Mt, equal to the total grain consumption of approximately 600 million Chinese people in one year. To capture which demand scenarios will be met when grain productivity gradually improves within reasonable ranges, we present three projections from the production side. In particular, Projection 1 (P1), which maintains productivity at the current level, only fulfills the projected demand for Scenarios 1-LL, 2-LM, 4-ML, and 7-HL and falls short of the maximum value (Scenario 9-HH) by 117 Mt, which requires an additional 250,000 ha of arable land resources to fill the gap. After raising the preset value of grain yield, the productivity of Projection 2 in turn satisfies the demand scenario 5-MM. When both set variables (grain yields and arable area) increase simultaneously, the output of Projection 3 increases by 15.3% over P1. However, it still lags behind the demand of 68 million tons in Scenario 9-HH, thus implying uncertainty in China’s vision of meeting the goal of 95% grain self-sufficiency. Rather than pursuing a single outcome, we discuss multiple possibilities for China’s future grain balance and emphasize the adjusting and compensating role of grain trade and storage in the whole system. Ultimately, this paper calls for a better understanding of the supply–demand gap therein and its future trends to support national grain security as well as global sustainable food policies. MDPI 2022-05-26 /pmc/articles/PMC9180600/ /pubmed/35681316 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11111566 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Wang, Xiang
Qiang, Wenli
Niu, Shuwen
Growe, Anna
Yan, Simin
Tian, Nan
Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period
title Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period
title_full Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period
title_fullStr Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period
title_full_unstemmed Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period
title_short Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period
title_sort multi-scenario simulation analysis of grain production and demand in china during the peak population period
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9180600/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35681316
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11111566
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