Mental Models of Illness during the Early Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic and its profound global effects may be changing the way we think about illness. In summer 2020, 120 American adults were asked to diagnose symptoms of COVID-19, a cold, and cancer, and to answer questions related to the diagnosis, treatment, prevention, time-course, and transmission of each disease. Results showed that participants were more likely to correctly diagnose COVID-19 (91% accuracy) compared to a cold (58% accuracy) or cancer (52% accuracy). We also found that 7% of participants misdiagnosed cold symptoms as COVID-19, and, interestingly, over twice as many participants (16%) misdiagnosed symptoms of cancer as COVID-19. Our findings suggest a distinct mental model for COVID-19 compared to other illnesses. Further, the prevalence of COVID-19 in everyday discourse—especially early in the pandemic—may lead to biased responding, similar to errors in medical diagnosis that result from physicians’ expertise. We also discuss how the focus of public-health messaging on prevention of COVID-19 might contribute to participants’ mental models.