U.S. Federal Reserve Policies can cause Political instability by raising bread prices(*)

This note argues that the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve impact food prices globally and can – by extension – affect the incidence of food riots and broader social conflict. We additionally claim that these impacts are especially likely in the case of commodities with more price-inelastic demand, staple cereals in particular, but less likely in the case of food commodities with more price-elastic demand, such as meats and oil. Using mediation analysis, we find empirical support for the impact of changes to US dollar supply on food riots from 2000–2011. We also find that this relationship extends to broader measures of social conflict (including protests, riots, strikes, etc.). We conclude with a cautionary note about how to interpret these results. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-022-01300-0.