A predictive risk score to diagnose hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism: a 22-year retrospective cohort study

Hypocalcemia is a common complication found in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) who undergo parathyroidectomy. This study aimed to construct a predictive risk score for the occurrence of hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with SHPT who underwent chronic renal replacement therapy (RRT). This 22-year retrospective cohort study enrolled 179 patients with SHPT who had their first parathyroidectomy. Eighty-two percent of patients developed hypocalcemia within 16.9 (95% CI 14.5–19.5) h after parathyroidectomy. This study demonstrated four factors as independent risk factors for post-parathyroidectomy hypocalcemia, including duration of RRT, preoperative serum phosphate, preoperative serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and mean difference of serum intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH). By using logistic regression analysis, this study demonstrated cut-off points for these four risk factors for the diagnosis of hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy: 5 years for the duration of RRT, 5 mg/dL for serum phosphate, 387 U/L for serum ALP, and 97% for the mean difference of serum iPTH. Finally, the predictive risk score was constructed by assigning a score of one to each factor. With a total score of at least 2, the proposed predictive risk score has an AuROC of 0.755 with a sensitivity of 78.2%, a specificity of 71.4%, and an accuracy of 76.9%.