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Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Adverse Outcomes of Geriatric Trauma Patients Based on Frailty Syndrome
PURPOSE: Currently, assessing trauma severity alone in geriatric trauma patients (GTPs) cannot accurately predict the risk of serious adverse outcomes during hospitalization. As an emerging concept in recent years, frailty syndrome is closely related to the poor prognosis of many diseases in elderly...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Dove
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9188480/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35698659 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S365635 |
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author | Zhuang, Yangfan Tu, Hao Feng, Quanrui Tang, Huiming Fu, Li Wang, Yuchang Bai, Xiangjun |
author_facet | Zhuang, Yangfan Tu, Hao Feng, Quanrui Tang, Huiming Fu, Li Wang, Yuchang Bai, Xiangjun |
author_sort | Zhuang, Yangfan |
collection | PubMed |
description | PURPOSE: Currently, assessing trauma severity alone in geriatric trauma patients (GTPs) cannot accurately predict the risk of serious adverse outcomes during hospitalization. As an emerging concept in recent years, frailty syndrome is closely related to the poor prognosis of many diseases in elderly patients, including trauma. A logistic model for predicting adverse outcomes in elderly trauma patients during hospitalization was constructed in elderly patients, and the predictive efficacy of the model was verified. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Trauma patients aged ≥65 years between June 2020 and September 2021 were selected and randomly divided into a training set and validation set at a ratio of 3:1. Mid arm muscle circumference (MAMC) was measured to determine the degree of frailty. LASSO regression was used to screen appropriate variables for the construction of a prognostic model. The logistic regression model was established and presented in the form of a nomogram. Calibration curves and ROC curves were used to verify the performance of the model. RESULTS: A total of 209 patients were enrolled, including 143 (68.4%) males and 66 (31.6%) females, with an average age of 70.8 ± 4.8 years. Ageless Charlson comorbidity index, BT unit, ISS, GCS, MAMC, prealbumin and lactic acid levels were screened by LASSO regression to construct a prognostic model. The AUC of the ROC analysis prediction model was 0.89 (95% CI 0.80–0.97) in the validation set. The results of the Hosmer–Lemeshow test for the validation set were χ2 = 11.23, P = 0.189. CONCLUSION: The prognostic model of adverse outcomes in GTPs has good accuracy and differentiation, which can improve the prediction results of risk stratification of GTPs during hospitalization by medical staff and provide a new idea for prognostic prediction. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9188480 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Dove |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-91884802022-06-12 Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Adverse Outcomes of Geriatric Trauma Patients Based on Frailty Syndrome Zhuang, Yangfan Tu, Hao Feng, Quanrui Tang, Huiming Fu, Li Wang, Yuchang Bai, Xiangjun Int J Gen Med Original Research PURPOSE: Currently, assessing trauma severity alone in geriatric trauma patients (GTPs) cannot accurately predict the risk of serious adverse outcomes during hospitalization. As an emerging concept in recent years, frailty syndrome is closely related to the poor prognosis of many diseases in elderly patients, including trauma. A logistic model for predicting adverse outcomes in elderly trauma patients during hospitalization was constructed in elderly patients, and the predictive efficacy of the model was verified. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Trauma patients aged ≥65 years between June 2020 and September 2021 were selected and randomly divided into a training set and validation set at a ratio of 3:1. Mid arm muscle circumference (MAMC) was measured to determine the degree of frailty. LASSO regression was used to screen appropriate variables for the construction of a prognostic model. The logistic regression model was established and presented in the form of a nomogram. Calibration curves and ROC curves were used to verify the performance of the model. RESULTS: A total of 209 patients were enrolled, including 143 (68.4%) males and 66 (31.6%) females, with an average age of 70.8 ± 4.8 years. Ageless Charlson comorbidity index, BT unit, ISS, GCS, MAMC, prealbumin and lactic acid levels were screened by LASSO regression to construct a prognostic model. The AUC of the ROC analysis prediction model was 0.89 (95% CI 0.80–0.97) in the validation set. The results of the Hosmer–Lemeshow test for the validation set were χ2 = 11.23, P = 0.189. CONCLUSION: The prognostic model of adverse outcomes in GTPs has good accuracy and differentiation, which can improve the prediction results of risk stratification of GTPs during hospitalization by medical staff and provide a new idea for prognostic prediction. Dove 2022-06-07 /pmc/articles/PMC9188480/ /pubmed/35698659 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S365635 Text en © 2022 Zhuang et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited. The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) ). By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed. For permission for commercial use of this work, please see paragraphs 4.2 and 5 of our Terms (https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php). |
spellingShingle | Original Research Zhuang, Yangfan Tu, Hao Feng, Quanrui Tang, Huiming Fu, Li Wang, Yuchang Bai, Xiangjun Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Adverse Outcomes of Geriatric Trauma Patients Based on Frailty Syndrome |
title | Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Adverse Outcomes of Geriatric Trauma Patients Based on Frailty Syndrome |
title_full | Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Adverse Outcomes of Geriatric Trauma Patients Based on Frailty Syndrome |
title_fullStr | Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Adverse Outcomes of Geriatric Trauma Patients Based on Frailty Syndrome |
title_full_unstemmed | Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Adverse Outcomes of Geriatric Trauma Patients Based on Frailty Syndrome |
title_short | Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Adverse Outcomes of Geriatric Trauma Patients Based on Frailty Syndrome |
title_sort | development and validation of a nomogram for adverse outcomes of geriatric trauma patients based on frailty syndrome |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9188480/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35698659 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S365635 |
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