Life expectations in early adolescence and the timing of first sex and marriage: evidence from a longitudinal survey in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Raising the median age at first sexual intercourse and first marriage among females is a policy goal of the Ethiopian government. Education figures prominently in the government’s plans for achieving its goals, including primary and secondary schools; higher education; and out-of-school interventions such as youth centers, peer clubs, and youth associations In this study, we tested whether adolescents and youth who had high educational and occupational expectations at younger ages were at a lower risk of first sexual intercourse and marriage during adolescence and early adulthood. METHODS: Data came from multiple waves of a longitudinal survey of households and adolescents conducted in southwestern Ethiopia. A measure of career expectations was created from educational and occupational expectations measured at baseline when the adolescents were ages 13–17. The occurrence and timing of first sexual intercourse (called first sex) and marriage were measured four years later in a wave 3 survey. Discrete-time logistic hazard regression models were applied to a person-year file to predict first sex for males and females separately and first marriage for females. RESULTS: Male and female adolescents who had high career expectations at young ages were at a significantly lower risk of first sex during adolescence and early adulthood. Unlike the delaying effect of being in school, the effect of high career expectations did not wear off as adolescents aged. Among female adolescents, delaying first sex, staying in school, and having parents who desired them to marry at older ages were all associated with a significantly lower risk of marriage during adolescence and early adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: The educational and occupational expectations and family plans that youth develop early in adolescence influence the timing of the transition into sexual activity and marriage. Ethiopian youth who develop high career expectations delay first sex, which for female youth is a key predictor of age at first marriage. Adolescents’ perceptions of parents’ expectations for them are strongly associated with their own expectations and behavior.