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Analysis of stochastic dynamics in a multistable logistic-type epidemiological model

Motivated by the important problem of analyzing and predicting the spread of epidemics, we propose and study a discrete susceptible-infected model. This logistic-type model accounts such significant parameters as the rate of infection spread due to contacts, mortality caused by disease, and the rate...

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Autores principales: Bashkirtseva, Irina, Ryashko, Lev
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9196167/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35729926
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00618-2
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author Bashkirtseva, Irina
Ryashko, Lev
author_facet Bashkirtseva, Irina
Ryashko, Lev
author_sort Bashkirtseva, Irina
collection PubMed
description Motivated by the important problem of analyzing and predicting the spread of epidemics, we propose and study a discrete susceptible-infected model. This logistic-type model accounts such significant parameters as the rate of infection spread due to contacts, mortality caused by disease, and the rate of recovery. We present results of the bifurcation analysis of regular and chaotic survival regimes for interacting susceptible and infected subpopulations. Parametric zones of multistability are found and basins of coexisting attractors are determined. We also discuss the particular role of specific transients. In-phase and anti-phase synchronization in the oscillations of the susceptible and infected parts of the population is studied. An impact of inevitably present random disturbances is studied numerically and by the analytical method of confidence domains. Various mechanisms of noise-induced extinction in this epidemiological model are discussed.
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spelling pubmed-91961672022-06-17 Analysis of stochastic dynamics in a multistable logistic-type epidemiological model Bashkirtseva, Irina Ryashko, Lev Eur Phys J Spec Top Regular Article Motivated by the important problem of analyzing and predicting the spread of epidemics, we propose and study a discrete susceptible-infected model. This logistic-type model accounts such significant parameters as the rate of infection spread due to contacts, mortality caused by disease, and the rate of recovery. We present results of the bifurcation analysis of regular and chaotic survival regimes for interacting susceptible and infected subpopulations. Parametric zones of multistability are found and basins of coexisting attractors are determined. We also discuss the particular role of specific transients. In-phase and anti-phase synchronization in the oscillations of the susceptible and infected parts of the population is studied. An impact of inevitably present random disturbances is studied numerically and by the analytical method of confidence domains. Various mechanisms of noise-induced extinction in this epidemiological model are discussed. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-06-14 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC9196167/ /pubmed/35729926 http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00618-2 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to EDP Sciences, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Regular Article
Bashkirtseva, Irina
Ryashko, Lev
Analysis of stochastic dynamics in a multistable logistic-type epidemiological model
title Analysis of stochastic dynamics in a multistable logistic-type epidemiological model
title_full Analysis of stochastic dynamics in a multistable logistic-type epidemiological model
title_fullStr Analysis of stochastic dynamics in a multistable logistic-type epidemiological model
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of stochastic dynamics in a multistable logistic-type epidemiological model
title_short Analysis of stochastic dynamics in a multistable logistic-type epidemiological model
title_sort analysis of stochastic dynamics in a multistable logistic-type epidemiological model
topic Regular Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9196167/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35729926
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00618-2
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