Association of Left Atrial Sphericity with Risk of Stroke in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation. Sub-Analysis of the ASSAM Study

PURPOSE: The study was designed to evaluate the value of left atrial (LA) sphericity (LASP) in the identification of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who had prior ischemic stroke. The secondary aim was to investigate the possibility of improving stroke risk assessment based on six geometrical variables of LA. METHODS: This prospective observational study involved 157 patients: 74 in the stroke group and 83 in the control. All patients had cardiac computed tomography (CT) performed to analyze LA volume and dimensions. LASP and the discriminant function of six geometrical measurements were calculated. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed a significant association of stroke with and gender, diabetes, CHA2DS2-VASc score, LA anteroposterior diameter, and LA sphericity. Patients with prior stroke had lower LASP than those without (66.6 ± 10.3% vs. 70.5 ± 7%; p = 0.0062). The most accurate identification of patients with a history of ischemic stroke was achieved by using a function of six geometrical measurements, the sphericity and volume coefficient. The C-statistic was higher for the above discriminant function (0.7273) than for LASP (0.3974). The addition of the discriminant function to the CHA2DS2-VASc score increased the performance of the risk score alone. CONCLUSION: LASP is associated with prior stroke in AF patients. The proposed new formula for identification of AF patients who are at risk of stroke, based on geometrical measurements of LA, is superior to the basic LASP in identification of AF patients with a history of stroke. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13239-021-00587-y.