A Novel Model Combining Tumor Length, Tumor Thickness, TNM_Stage, Nutritional Index, and Inflammatory Index Might Be Superior to the 8th TNM Staging Criteria in Predicting the Prognosis of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Treated With Definitive Chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine whether the tumor length and tumor thickness should be used as prognostic factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT). METHODS: A retrospective analysis consists of 902 non-operative ESCC patients received dCRT. The nomogram was used to predict the survival. Besides, Restricted Cubic Splines (RCS) was used to examine the relationship between prognostic factors and survival outcomes. Finally, the prognostic index (PI) scores were constructed according to the tumor length and tumor thickness, and the patients were divided into the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. RESULTS: The median follow-up of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were 23.0 months and 17.5 months. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that tumor length and tumor thickness were independent prognostic factors associated with survival. Our novel nomograms for OS and PFS were superior to the TNM classification (p < 0.001). Besides, RCS analysis demonstrated that the death hazard of tumor length and tumor thickness sharply increased at 7.7 cm and 1.6 cm (p < 0.001). Finally, there were significant differences for ESCC patients with clinical TNM stage group of the OS and PFS in different risk groups. The higher risk group was significantly associated with shorter OS and PFS in ESCC patients (both p < 0.001 for all). CONCLUSION: The study results suggest that the novel models integrating tumor length and tumor thickness may provide a simple and widely available method for evaluating the prognosis of non-operative ESCC patients. The tumor length and tumor thickness should be considered as prognostic factors for ESCC.