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Projections of future forest degradation and CO(2) emissions for the Brazilian Amazon

In recent years, the area affected by forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon has frequently been higher than deforestation. From August 2006 to July 2019, the degraded area totaled 194,058 km(2), representing almost two times the 99,630 km(2) deforested in the same period. The impacts of degrada...

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Autores principales: Assis, Talita O., Aguiar, Ana Paula D., von Randow, Celso, Nobre, Carlos A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9200269/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35704589
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abj3309
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author Assis, Talita O.
Aguiar, Ana Paula D.
von Randow, Celso
Nobre, Carlos A.
author_facet Assis, Talita O.
Aguiar, Ana Paula D.
von Randow, Celso
Nobre, Carlos A.
author_sort Assis, Talita O.
collection PubMed
description In recent years, the area affected by forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon has frequently been higher than deforestation. From August 2006 to July 2019, the degraded area totaled 194,058 km(2), representing almost two times the 99,630 km(2) deforested in the same period. The impacts of degradation include biodiversity loss and changes in the carbon stocks, affecting the CO(2) balance and future climate changes. This paper aims to explore socioeconomic and environmental factors that influence forest degradation, project future scenarios, and assess the impact on the regional carbon balance, combining forest degradation and deforestation-related processes (clear-cut deforestation and secondary vegetation dynamics). We show that, while net CO(2) emissions from 2020 to 2050 are 0.74 Gt CO(2) in the Sustainable scenario, this value reached 22.63 Gt CO(2) in the Fragmentation scenario, an increasingly plausible scenario given the recent trends in the region.
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spelling pubmed-92002692022-06-27 Projections of future forest degradation and CO(2) emissions for the Brazilian Amazon Assis, Talita O. Aguiar, Ana Paula D. von Randow, Celso Nobre, Carlos A. Sci Adv Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences In recent years, the area affected by forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon has frequently been higher than deforestation. From August 2006 to July 2019, the degraded area totaled 194,058 km(2), representing almost two times the 99,630 km(2) deforested in the same period. The impacts of degradation include biodiversity loss and changes in the carbon stocks, affecting the CO(2) balance and future climate changes. This paper aims to explore socioeconomic and environmental factors that influence forest degradation, project future scenarios, and assess the impact on the regional carbon balance, combining forest degradation and deforestation-related processes (clear-cut deforestation and secondary vegetation dynamics). We show that, while net CO(2) emissions from 2020 to 2050 are 0.74 Gt CO(2) in the Sustainable scenario, this value reached 22.63 Gt CO(2) in the Fragmentation scenario, an increasingly plausible scenario given the recent trends in the region. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2022-06-15 /pmc/articles/PMC9200269/ /pubmed/35704589 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abj3309 Text en Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences
Assis, Talita O.
Aguiar, Ana Paula D.
von Randow, Celso
Nobre, Carlos A.
Projections of future forest degradation and CO(2) emissions for the Brazilian Amazon
title Projections of future forest degradation and CO(2) emissions for the Brazilian Amazon
title_full Projections of future forest degradation and CO(2) emissions for the Brazilian Amazon
title_fullStr Projections of future forest degradation and CO(2) emissions for the Brazilian Amazon
title_full_unstemmed Projections of future forest degradation and CO(2) emissions for the Brazilian Amazon
title_short Projections of future forest degradation and CO(2) emissions for the Brazilian Amazon
title_sort projections of future forest degradation and co(2) emissions for the brazilian amazon
topic Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9200269/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35704589
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abj3309
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