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COVID-19 pandemic in Saint Petersburg, Russia: Combining population-based serological study and surveillance data

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic in Russia has already resulted in 500,000 excess deaths, with more than 5.6 million cases registered officially by July 2021. Surveillance based on case reporting has become the core pandemic monitoring method in the country and globally. However, population-based s...

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Autores principales: Barchuk, Anton, Skougarevskiy, Dmitriy, Kouprianov, Alexei, Shirokov, Daniil, Dudkina, Olga, Tursun-zade, Rustam, Sergeeva, Mariia, Tychkova, Varvara, Komissarov, Andrey, Zheltukhina, Alena, Lioznov, Dmitry, Isaev, Artur, Pomerantseva, Ekaterina, Zhikrivetskaya, Svetlana, Sofronova, Yana, Blagodatskikh, Konstantin, Titaev, Kirill, Barabanova, Lubov, Danilenko, Daria
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9200332/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35704649
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266945
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author Barchuk, Anton
Skougarevskiy, Dmitriy
Kouprianov, Alexei
Shirokov, Daniil
Dudkina, Olga
Tursun-zade, Rustam
Sergeeva, Mariia
Tychkova, Varvara
Komissarov, Andrey
Zheltukhina, Alena
Lioznov, Dmitry
Isaev, Artur
Pomerantseva, Ekaterina
Zhikrivetskaya, Svetlana
Sofronova, Yana
Blagodatskikh, Konstantin
Titaev, Kirill
Barabanova, Lubov
Danilenko, Daria
author_facet Barchuk, Anton
Skougarevskiy, Dmitriy
Kouprianov, Alexei
Shirokov, Daniil
Dudkina, Olga
Tursun-zade, Rustam
Sergeeva, Mariia
Tychkova, Varvara
Komissarov, Andrey
Zheltukhina, Alena
Lioznov, Dmitry
Isaev, Artur
Pomerantseva, Ekaterina
Zhikrivetskaya, Svetlana
Sofronova, Yana
Blagodatskikh, Konstantin
Titaev, Kirill
Barabanova, Lubov
Danilenko, Daria
author_sort Barchuk, Anton
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic in Russia has already resulted in 500,000 excess deaths, with more than 5.6 million cases registered officially by July 2021. Surveillance based on case reporting has become the core pandemic monitoring method in the country and globally. However, population-based seroprevalence studies may provide an unbiased estimate of the actual disease spread and, in combination with multiple surveillance tools, help to define the pandemic course. This study summarises results from four consecutive serological surveys conducted between May 2020 and April 2021 at St. Petersburg, Russia and combines them with other SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data. METHODS: We conducted four serological surveys of two random samples (May–June, July–August, October–December 2020, and February–April 2021) from adults residing in St. Petersburg recruited with the random digit dialing (RDD), accompanied by a telephone interview to collect information on both individuals who accepted and declined the invitation for testing and account for non-response. We have used enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay CoronaPass total antibodies test (Genetico, Moscow, Russia) to report seroprevalence. We corrected the estimates for non-response using the bivariate probit model and also accounted the test performance characteristics, obtained from independent assay evaluation. In addition, we have summarised the official registered cases statistics, the number of hospitalised patients, the number of COVID-19 deaths, excess deaths, tests performed, data from the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) surveillance, the vaccination uptake, and St. Petersburg search and mobility trends. The infection fatality ratios (IFR) have been calculated using the Bayesian evidence synthesis model. FINDINGS: After calling 113,017 random mobile phones we have reached 14,118 individuals who responded to computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) and 2,413 provided blood samples at least once through the seroprevalence study. The adjusted seroprevalence in May–June, 2020 was 9.7% (95%: 7.7–11.7), 13.3% (95% 9.9–16.6) in July–August, 2020, 22.9% (95%: 20.3–25.5) in October–December, 2021 and 43.9% (95%: 39.7–48.0) in February–April, 2021. History of any symptoms, history of COVID-19 tests, and non-smoking status were significant predictors for higher seroprevalence. Most individuals remained seropositive with a maximum 10 months follow-up. 92.7% (95% CI 87.9–95.7) of participants who have reported at least one vaccine dose were seropositive. Hospitalisation and COVID-19 death statistics and search terms trends reflected the pandemic course better than the official case count, especially during the spring 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation showed rather low genetic SARS-CoV-2 lineages diversity that increased in the spring 2021. Local VOC (AT.1) was spreading till April 2021, but B.1.617.2 substituted all other lineages by June 2021. The IFR based on the excess deaths was equal to 1.04 (95% CI 0.80–1.31) for the adult population and 0.86% (95% CI 0.66–1.08) for the entire population. CONCLUSION: Approximately one year after the COVID-19 pandemic about 45% of St. Petersburg, Russia residents contracted the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Combined with vaccination uptake of about 10% it was enough to slow the pandemic at the present level of all mitigation measures until the Delta VOC started to spread. Combination of several surveillance tools provides a comprehensive pandemic picture.
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spelling pubmed-92003322022-06-16 COVID-19 pandemic in Saint Petersburg, Russia: Combining population-based serological study and surveillance data Barchuk, Anton Skougarevskiy, Dmitriy Kouprianov, Alexei Shirokov, Daniil Dudkina, Olga Tursun-zade, Rustam Sergeeva, Mariia Tychkova, Varvara Komissarov, Andrey Zheltukhina, Alena Lioznov, Dmitry Isaev, Artur Pomerantseva, Ekaterina Zhikrivetskaya, Svetlana Sofronova, Yana Blagodatskikh, Konstantin Titaev, Kirill Barabanova, Lubov Danilenko, Daria PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic in Russia has already resulted in 500,000 excess deaths, with more than 5.6 million cases registered officially by July 2021. Surveillance based on case reporting has become the core pandemic monitoring method in the country and globally. However, population-based seroprevalence studies may provide an unbiased estimate of the actual disease spread and, in combination with multiple surveillance tools, help to define the pandemic course. This study summarises results from four consecutive serological surveys conducted between May 2020 and April 2021 at St. Petersburg, Russia and combines them with other SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data. METHODS: We conducted four serological surveys of two random samples (May–June, July–August, October–December 2020, and February–April 2021) from adults residing in St. Petersburg recruited with the random digit dialing (RDD), accompanied by a telephone interview to collect information on both individuals who accepted and declined the invitation for testing and account for non-response. We have used enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay CoronaPass total antibodies test (Genetico, Moscow, Russia) to report seroprevalence. We corrected the estimates for non-response using the bivariate probit model and also accounted the test performance characteristics, obtained from independent assay evaluation. In addition, we have summarised the official registered cases statistics, the number of hospitalised patients, the number of COVID-19 deaths, excess deaths, tests performed, data from the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) surveillance, the vaccination uptake, and St. Petersburg search and mobility trends. The infection fatality ratios (IFR) have been calculated using the Bayesian evidence synthesis model. FINDINGS: After calling 113,017 random mobile phones we have reached 14,118 individuals who responded to computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) and 2,413 provided blood samples at least once through the seroprevalence study. The adjusted seroprevalence in May–June, 2020 was 9.7% (95%: 7.7–11.7), 13.3% (95% 9.9–16.6) in July–August, 2020, 22.9% (95%: 20.3–25.5) in October–December, 2021 and 43.9% (95%: 39.7–48.0) in February–April, 2021. History of any symptoms, history of COVID-19 tests, and non-smoking status were significant predictors for higher seroprevalence. Most individuals remained seropositive with a maximum 10 months follow-up. 92.7% (95% CI 87.9–95.7) of participants who have reported at least one vaccine dose were seropositive. Hospitalisation and COVID-19 death statistics and search terms trends reflected the pandemic course better than the official case count, especially during the spring 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation showed rather low genetic SARS-CoV-2 lineages diversity that increased in the spring 2021. Local VOC (AT.1) was spreading till April 2021, but B.1.617.2 substituted all other lineages by June 2021. The IFR based on the excess deaths was equal to 1.04 (95% CI 0.80–1.31) for the adult population and 0.86% (95% CI 0.66–1.08) for the entire population. CONCLUSION: Approximately one year after the COVID-19 pandemic about 45% of St. Petersburg, Russia residents contracted the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Combined with vaccination uptake of about 10% it was enough to slow the pandemic at the present level of all mitigation measures until the Delta VOC started to spread. Combination of several surveillance tools provides a comprehensive pandemic picture. Public Library of Science 2022-06-15 /pmc/articles/PMC9200332/ /pubmed/35704649 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266945 Text en © 2022 Barchuk et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Barchuk, Anton
Skougarevskiy, Dmitriy
Kouprianov, Alexei
Shirokov, Daniil
Dudkina, Olga
Tursun-zade, Rustam
Sergeeva, Mariia
Tychkova, Varvara
Komissarov, Andrey
Zheltukhina, Alena
Lioznov, Dmitry
Isaev, Artur
Pomerantseva, Ekaterina
Zhikrivetskaya, Svetlana
Sofronova, Yana
Blagodatskikh, Konstantin
Titaev, Kirill
Barabanova, Lubov
Danilenko, Daria
COVID-19 pandemic in Saint Petersburg, Russia: Combining population-based serological study and surveillance data
title COVID-19 pandemic in Saint Petersburg, Russia: Combining population-based serological study and surveillance data
title_full COVID-19 pandemic in Saint Petersburg, Russia: Combining population-based serological study and surveillance data
title_fullStr COVID-19 pandemic in Saint Petersburg, Russia: Combining population-based serological study and surveillance data
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 pandemic in Saint Petersburg, Russia: Combining population-based serological study and surveillance data
title_short COVID-19 pandemic in Saint Petersburg, Russia: Combining population-based serological study and surveillance data
title_sort covid-19 pandemic in saint petersburg, russia: combining population-based serological study and surveillance data
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9200332/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35704649
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266945
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