Sensitivity Analysis of a Bench-Scale Pyrolysis Model for Composite Materials: A Case Study of Poly(lactic acid)/Melamine/Ammonium Polyphosphate

[Image: see text] On the basis of a well-developed bench-scale pyrolysis model that relates material composition to flammability, this paper applied mathematical simulations to explore the model sensitivity for the prediction of fire behavior of composite materials. A pyrolysis model for poly(lactic acid) blended with melamine and ammonium polyphosphate as the reference material was selected as the case for analysis. The model input parameters for simulations include the heat of reaction, apparent activation energy, and pre-exponential factor of 15 reactions, as well as the thermal conductivity, emissivity coefficient, absorption coefficient, and density of 17 condensed-phase components. Each reaction-related or component-related parameter was adjusted from 80% of the model value to 120% with a 5% or 10% gradient. Finally, 826 simulation cases in total were calculated for analysis. Both the mass loss rate and the heat release rate of each case were calculated to characterize the sensitivity, which showed the same pattern. Finally, seven primary reactions and five key condensed-phase components with high sensitivity were identified. The predicted fire behaviors are highly related to the kinetics of the reactions between virgin components or reactions where virgin components play an important role in, including the pyrolysis of melted poly(lactic acid), the first step in the pyrolysis of melamine, the first step in the pyrolysis of ammonium polyphosphate, the reaction between melted poly(lactic acid) and melamine, the reaction between ammonium polyphosphate and melamine, and further decomposition of the generated new condensed-phase component. Particularly, the activation energy of these reactions is of sensitivity larger than 5% or 15%. The heat of decomposition of pyrolysis of melted poly(lactic acid) also showed a sensitivity of 2%–5%. The pre-exponential factor of all reactions showed a sensitivity of less than 2%, which can be ignored. Inputting the proper density is important for the prediction of fire behavior as the sensitivity is larger than 2%. The sensitivity of the milligram-scale model was also processed and compared. These simulations provided a fundamental understanding of the sensitivity of thermophysical and chemical properties and thus provide advanced insights into fire behavior modeling and new composite material design.