Implications for fault locking south of Jakarta from an investigation of seismic activity along the Baribis fault, northwestern Java, Indonesia

Recent borehole seismic deployments conducted along the Baribis Fault in northwestern Java reveal that it may be active. In this study, we exploit these data to locate proximal earthquakes using a relative relocation technique, estimate their moment magnitudes using a spectral fitting method and compute their focal mechanisms via waveform inversion. We observe that seismicity in the eastern part of the fault is significantly higher than in the west, where a previous GPS study of the region south of Jakarta demonstrated the existence of high compression rates. These observations imply that the western Baribis Fault is locked, and that neighbouring areas, including southern Jakarta and its surroundings, may be highly vulnerable to future sizeable earthquakes when accumulated elastic strain energy is eventually released during fault rupture. Significantly, the current generation of Indonesia’s national hazard maps have not considered seismicity along the Baribis Fault. Our new results therefore call for an urgent reappraisal of the seismic hazard in northwestern Java that carefully takes into account the Baribis Fault and its earthquake potential, particularly in light of its proximity to Jakarta, a megacity that lies at the heart of one of the most densely populated islands in the world.