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Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data

The outbreak of COVID-19 stimulated a new round of discussion on how to deal with respiratory infectious diseases. Influenza viruses have led to several pandemics worldwide. The spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza transmission in modern cities, especially megacities, are not well-known, whic...

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Autores principales: Zhang, Hao, Yin, Ling, Mao, Liang, Mei, Shujiang, Chen, Tianmu, Liu, Kang, Feng, Shengzhong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9204335/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35719665
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.883624
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author Zhang, Hao
Yin, Ling
Mao, Liang
Mei, Shujiang
Chen, Tianmu
Liu, Kang
Feng, Shengzhong
author_facet Zhang, Hao
Yin, Ling
Mao, Liang
Mei, Shujiang
Chen, Tianmu
Liu, Kang
Feng, Shengzhong
author_sort Zhang, Hao
collection PubMed
description The outbreak of COVID-19 stimulated a new round of discussion on how to deal with respiratory infectious diseases. Influenza viruses have led to several pandemics worldwide. The spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza transmission in modern cities, especially megacities, are not well-known, which increases the difficulty of influenza prevention and control for populous urban areas. For a long time, influenza prevention and control measures have focused on vaccination of the elderly and children, and school closure. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the public's awareness of measures such as vaccinations, mask-wearing, and home-quarantine has generally increased in some regions of the world. To control the influenza epidemic and reduce the proportion of infected people with high mortality, the combination of these three measures needs quantitative evaluation based on the spatiotemporal transmission characteristics of influenza in megacities. Given that the agent-based model with both demographic attributes and fine-grained mobility is a key planning tool in deploying intervention strategies, this study proposes a spatially explicit agent-based influenza model for assessing and recommending the combinations of influenza control measures. This study considers Shenzhen city, China as the research area. First, a spatially explicit agent-based influenza transmission model was developed by integrating large-scale individual trajectory data and human response behavior. Then, the model was evaluated across multiple intra-urban spatial scales based on confirmed influenza cases. Finally, the model was used to evaluate the combined effects of the three interventions (V: vaccinations, M: mask-wearing, and Q: home-quarantining) under different compliance rates, and their optimal combinations for given control objectives were recommended. This study reveals that adults were a high-risk population with a low reporting rate, and children formed the lowest infected proportion and had the highest reporting rate in Shenzhen. In addition, this study systematically recommended different combinations of vaccinations, mask-wearing, and home-quarantine with different compliance rates for different control objectives to deal with the influenza epidemic. For example, the “V45%-M60%-Q20%” strategy can maintain the infection percentage below 5%, while the “V20%-M60%-Q20%” strategy can maintain the infection percentage below 15%. The model and policy recommendations from this study provide a tool and intervention reference for influenza epidemic management in the post-COVID-19 era.
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spelling pubmed-92043352022-06-18 Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data Zhang, Hao Yin, Ling Mao, Liang Mei, Shujiang Chen, Tianmu Liu, Kang Feng, Shengzhong Front Public Health Public Health The outbreak of COVID-19 stimulated a new round of discussion on how to deal with respiratory infectious diseases. Influenza viruses have led to several pandemics worldwide. The spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza transmission in modern cities, especially megacities, are not well-known, which increases the difficulty of influenza prevention and control for populous urban areas. For a long time, influenza prevention and control measures have focused on vaccination of the elderly and children, and school closure. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the public's awareness of measures such as vaccinations, mask-wearing, and home-quarantine has generally increased in some regions of the world. To control the influenza epidemic and reduce the proportion of infected people with high mortality, the combination of these three measures needs quantitative evaluation based on the spatiotemporal transmission characteristics of influenza in megacities. Given that the agent-based model with both demographic attributes and fine-grained mobility is a key planning tool in deploying intervention strategies, this study proposes a spatially explicit agent-based influenza model for assessing and recommending the combinations of influenza control measures. This study considers Shenzhen city, China as the research area. First, a spatially explicit agent-based influenza transmission model was developed by integrating large-scale individual trajectory data and human response behavior. Then, the model was evaluated across multiple intra-urban spatial scales based on confirmed influenza cases. Finally, the model was used to evaluate the combined effects of the three interventions (V: vaccinations, M: mask-wearing, and Q: home-quarantining) under different compliance rates, and their optimal combinations for given control objectives were recommended. This study reveals that adults were a high-risk population with a low reporting rate, and children formed the lowest infected proportion and had the highest reporting rate in Shenzhen. In addition, this study systematically recommended different combinations of vaccinations, mask-wearing, and home-quarantine with different compliance rates for different control objectives to deal with the influenza epidemic. For example, the “V45%-M60%-Q20%” strategy can maintain the infection percentage below 5%, while the “V20%-M60%-Q20%” strategy can maintain the infection percentage below 15%. The model and policy recommendations from this study provide a tool and intervention reference for influenza epidemic management in the post-COVID-19 era. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-05-26 /pmc/articles/PMC9204335/ /pubmed/35719665 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.883624 Text en Copyright © 2022 Zhang, Yin, Mao, Mei, Chen, Liu and Feng. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Public Health
Zhang, Hao
Yin, Ling
Mao, Liang
Mei, Shujiang
Chen, Tianmu
Liu, Kang
Feng, Shengzhong
Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data
title Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data
title_full Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data
title_fullStr Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data
title_full_unstemmed Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data
title_short Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data
title_sort combinational recommendation of vaccinations, mask-wearing, and home-quarantine to control influenza in megacities: an agent-based modeling study with large-scale trajectory data
topic Public Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9204335/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35719665
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.883624
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