Methodological quality of machine learning-based quantitative imaging analysis studies in esophageal cancer: a systematic review of clinical outcome prediction after concurrent chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE: Studies based on machine learning-based quantitative imaging techniques have gained much interest in cancer research. The aim of this review is to critically appraise the existing machine learning-based quantitative imaging analysis studies predicting outcomes of esophageal cancer after concurrent chemoradiotherapy in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. The citation search was performed via PubMed and Embase Ovid databases for literature published before April 2021. From each full-text article, study characteristics and model information were summarized. We proposed an appraisal matrix with 13 items to assess the methodological quality of each study based on recommended best-practices pertaining to quality. RESULTS: Out of 244 identified records, 37 studies met the inclusion criteria. Study endpoints included prognosis, treatment response, and toxicity after concurrent chemoradiotherapy with reported discrimination metrics in validation datasets between 0.6 and 0.9, with wide variation in quality. A total of 30 studies published within the last 5 years were evaluated for methodological quality and we found 11 studies with at least 6 “good” item ratings. CONCLUSION: A substantial number of studies lacked prospective registration, external validation, model calibration, and support for use in clinic. To further improve the predictive power of machine learning-based models and translate into real clinical applications in cancer research, appropriate methodologies, prospective registration, and multi-institution validation are recommended. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00259-021-05658-9.