The Role of Changes in Cumulative Lipid Parameter Burden in the Pathogenesis of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Cohort Study of People Aged 35–65 Years in Rural China

PURPOSE: The main purpose of this study was to examine the effect of the cumulative exposure of blood lipid parameters on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Another purpose was to explore whether the cumulative burden of blood lipid parameters plays a certain role in the pathogenesis of diet affecting T2DM. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 63 cases of diabetes occurred from 2017 to 2020, with an incidence density of 3.71 person-years. The dietary intake of the residents was obtained by using a dietary frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Cumulative lipid parameter burden was calculated according to the number of years (2016–2020) multiplied by total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL) and triglyceride (TG). A Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effect of cumulative lipid burden on T2DM. A mediating analysis of accelerated failure time (AFT) was used to investigate the mediating effects of certain foods, the cumulative lipid parameter burden and T2DM. RESULTS: A higher cumulative TG load corresponded to a higher risk of T2DM onset (P(trend)=0.021). After adjusting for covariates, the highest quartile cumulative TG burden had a 3.462 times higher risk of T2DM than that in the lowest quartile (HR=3.462, 95% CI: 1.297–9.243). Moreover, a higher cumulative HDL load corresponded to a lower risk of T2DM onset (P(trend) =0.006). After adjusting for covariates, the risk of T2DM was 0.314-fold lower in the highest quartile of cumulative HDL burden than that in the lowest quartile (HR=0.314, 95% CI: 0.131–0.753). Cumulative TG burden partially mediated the association between red meat and T2DM. CONCLUSION: The increase in cumulative HDL burden and the decrease in cumulative HDL burden are related to the incidence of T2DM. Cumulative TG burden was shown to play a partial mediating role in the pathogenesis of red meat and diabetes.