Identification of Helicobacter pylori-related gastric cancer risk using serological gastritis markers and endoscopic findings: a large-scale retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer remains a severe public health problem worldwide, particularly in Japan. Recent studies have demonstrated that serum markers are beneficial for risk stratification in gastric cancer development. We aimed to evaluate the usefulness of serum markers either alone or in combination (serum markers plus endoscopy) for effective risk stratification of gastric cancer development. METHODS: We enrolled 22,736 patients aged 20–95 years who underwent blood sampling and endoscopic examination at Hiroshima University Hospital in Japan between 1990 and 2014. The serum pepsinogen (PG) levels and anti-Helicobacter pylori antibody (Hp-Ab) titers were evaluated in each patient. The enrolled patients were matched with the database of the Hiroshima Prefecture Regional Cancer Registry. We processed the medical records and excluded patients with possible confounding factors for PG levels, such as proton pump inhibitor use, prior successful eradication therapy, post-gastrectomy, severe hepatorenal dysfunction, Zollinger–Ellison syndrome, and autoimmune gastritis. Among the remaining 5131 patients, we reviewed records of endoscopic examinations and selected 1507 patients (mean age, 62.5 years; 985 men and 522 women) who underwent endoscopic examination more than three months after blood sampling. First, based on the ABC method, patients were classified as follows: High PG levels and negative Hp-Ab, group A, high PG levels and positive Hp-Ab, group B, low PG levels and positive Hp-Ab, group C, and low PG levels and negative Hp-Ab, group D. Group A was further classified into two subgroups using endoscopic findings: true A without atrophic gastritis and pseudo A with atrophic gastritis. All patients underwent annual endoscopy follow-up. RESULTS: Among the 1,507 patients (mean age, 62.5 years; 985 men), 24 were diagnosed with newly developed gastric cancer. No significant difference in cancer development was found between group A (PG negative and Hp-Ab negative) and the other groups. Remarkably, no true A group subjects developed gastric cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of serum markers and endoscopic findings is essential for the risk evaluation of gastric cancer. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02381-z.