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Analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the SIR epidemic model

The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a simple mathematical model of epidemic outbreaks, yet for decades it evaded the efforts of the community to derive an explicit solution. The present manuscript surveys new analytical results about the SIR model. Recently, it was proven that the explic...

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Autor principal: Prodanov, Dimiter
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9212253/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-32-390504-6.00015-2
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author Prodanov, Dimiter
author_facet Prodanov, Dimiter
author_sort Prodanov, Dimiter
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description The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a simple mathematical model of epidemic outbreaks, yet for decades it evaded the efforts of the community to derive an explicit solution. The present manuscript surveys new analytical results about the SIR model. Recently, it was proven that the explicit solution of the model requires the introduction of a new transcendental special function, related to the Wright's Omega function and Lambert W function. Asymptotic methods and iterative numerical routines suitable for parametric estimation of the SIR model are discussed as well. The methods are exemplified with influenza and COVID-19 datasets.
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spelling pubmed-92122532022-06-22 Analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the SIR epidemic model Prodanov, Dimiter Mathematical Analysis of Infectious Diseases Article The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a simple mathematical model of epidemic outbreaks, yet for decades it evaded the efforts of the community to derive an explicit solution. The present manuscript surveys new analytical results about the SIR model. Recently, it was proven that the explicit solution of the model requires the introduction of a new transcendental special function, related to the Wright's Omega function and Lambert W function. Asymptotic methods and iterative numerical routines suitable for parametric estimation of the SIR model are discussed as well. The methods are exemplified with influenza and COVID-19 datasets. 2022 2022-06-17 /pmc/articles/PMC9212253/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-32-390504-6.00015-2 Text en Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Prodanov, Dimiter
Analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the SIR epidemic model
title Analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the SIR epidemic model
title_full Analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the SIR epidemic model
title_fullStr Analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the SIR epidemic model
title_full_unstemmed Analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the SIR epidemic model
title_short Analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the SIR epidemic model
title_sort analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the sir epidemic model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9212253/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-32-390504-6.00015-2
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