Analysing the impact of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil

OBJECTIVES: We have examined the impact of changes in modifiable risk factors on CVD mortality in 26 Brazilian states from 2005 to 2017. METHODS: Data were acquired from the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD) and official sources of the Brazilian government, totalling 312 state-year observations. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated to determine the number of deaths attributed to changes in each risk factor. Fixed-effects multivariable linear regression models were performed, adjusting for income, income inequality, poverty and access to healthcare. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2017, CVD deaths reduced by 21.42%, accompanied by a decrease in smoking (-33%) and increases in hyperglycaemia (+9.5%), obesity (+31%) and dyslipidaemia (+5.2%). Reduction in smoking prevented or postponed almost 20,000 CVD deaths in this period, while increased hyperglycaemia exposure resulted in more than 6,000 CVD deaths. The association between hyperglycaemia and CVD mortality was 5 to 10 times higher than those found for other risk factors, especially in women (11; 95%CI 7 to 14, deaths per 1-point increase in hyperglycaemia exposure). Importantly, the association between hyperglycaemia and CVD mortality was independent of socioeconomic status and access to healthcare, while associations for other risk factors after the same adjustments. CONCLUSION: Reduction in smoking was the risk factor that led to the highest number of CVD deaths prevented or postponed, while hyperglycaemia showed the most deleterious association with CVD mortality. Health policies should aim to directly reduce the prevalence of hyperglycaemia to mitigate the population burden of CVD in Brazil in the future.