Modeling and Prediction of the Species’ Range of Neurobasis chinensis (Linnaeus, 1758) under Climate Change

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Global climate change is accelerating and modifying the distribution of many extant species. Dragonflies, as a group, inhabit aquatic as well as terrestrial environments and are considered sensitive climate change indicators. In this study, we model and predict the range of a large, tropical damselfly Neurobasis chinensis L. under the last glacial maximum (LGM), the current, and four future warming scenarios. The models show that the species mainly occupies forest ecosystems below 1200 m (preferring 500 to 1200 m) and had two historic core distribution areas in LGM, one of which survived, namely south-central Vietnam. The future scenarios show that the core distribution, high suitable habitats, and even the whole species range of N. chinensis will extend northwards. ABSTRACT: Neurobasis chinensis is widely distributed in eastern tropical Asia. Its only congener in China, the N. anderssoni, has not been observed for decades. To protect N. chinensis, it is necessary to understand the ecological properties of its habitats and specie’s range shift under climate change. In the present study, we modeled its potential distribution under one historical, current, and four future scenarios. We evaluated the importance of the factors that shape its distribution and habitats and predicted the historical and current core spatial distributions and their shifting in the future. Two historical core distribution areas were identified: the inland region of the Bay of Bengal and south-central Vietnam. The current potential distribution includes south China, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Luzon of Philippines, Malaysia, southwest and northeast India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia (Java, Sumatera), Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and foothills of the Himalayas, in total, ca. 3.59 × 10(6) km(2). Only one core distribution remained, concentrated in south-central Vietnam. In a warming future, the core distribution, high suitable habitats, and even the whole range of N. chinensis will expand and shift northwards. Currently, N. chinensis mainly resides in forest ecosystems below 1200 m above sea level (preferred 500 m to 1200 m a.s.l.). Annual precipitation, mean temperature of driest quarter, and seasonality of precipitation are important factors shaping the species distribution. Our study provides systematic information on habitats and geographical distribution, which is useful for the conservation of N. chinensis.