Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (Calonectria pseudonaviculata) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Knowledge of where invasive species could potentially establish (potential distribution) is critical to prioritizing and addressing biological invasion threats. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of Calonectria pseudonaviculata (Cps), an invasive fungal pathogen that blights boxwood, an iconic landscape plant, major evergreen nursery crop, and keystone forest species. We used climate data, presence records from Europe and western Asia, and multiple modeling approaches to predict the potential distribution of Cps at regional and global scales and to explore the roles of temperature and moisture in shaping its distribution. Model predictions were validated using an independent presence record dataset. A consensus map of model predictions revealed that Cps could potentially spread and establish well beyond its currently invaded range in Europe, western Asia, New Zealand, United States and Canada. These include a number of not-yet-invaded areas in eastern and southern Europe, North America, and many regions of the world where boxwood is native. This knowledge informs policymakers and other stakeholders in these areas on the need for implementing a strict phytosanitary protocol for risk mitigation of accidental introduction, having an effective surveillance for early detection, and developing a recovery plan for the pathogen when accidental introductions occur. ABSTRACT: Boxwood blight caused by Cps is an emerging disease that has had devastating impacts on Buxus spp. in the horticultural sector, landscapes, and native ecosystems. In this study, we produced a process-based climatic suitability model in the CLIMEX program and combined outputs of four different correlative modeling algorithms to generate an ensemble correlative model. All models were fit and validated using a presence record dataset comprised of Cps detections across its entire known invaded range. Evaluations of model performance provided validation of good model fit for all models. A consensus map of CLIMEX and ensemble correlative model predictions indicated that not-yet-invaded areas in eastern and southern Europe and in the southeastern, midwestern, and Pacific coast regions of North America are climatically suitable for Cps establishment. Most regions of the world where Buxus and its congeners are native are also at risk of establishment. These findings provide the first insights into Cps global invasion threat, suggesting that this invasive pathogen has the potential to significantly expand its range.