The Early Detection of Breast Cancer Using Liquid Biopsies: Model Estimates of the Benefits, Harms, and Costs

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Breast cancer screening is associated with benefits, such as mortality reduction and improved quality of life, and harms, such as false-positive results, overdiagnoses, and costs. Novel screen tests could be considered to reduce the harms and increase the benefits of screening. Liquid biopsies have been proposed as a novel method for the early detection of breast cancer. However, studies show that liquid biopsies based on cell-free DNA have a low sensitivity for early-stage breast cancer. Using the microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia, we model the benefits, harms, and costs of the early detection of breast cancer using liquid biopsies for varying levels of liquid biopsy sensitivity and specificity. We found that liquid biopsies are unlikely to be an alternative to digital mammography, given the test performance based on a CCGA substudy. When liquid biopsies are unable to detect the precursor lesion of breast cancer—ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS)—they need to be able to detect small, early-stage tumors, with high specificity, at low costs in order to be an alternative to digital mammography. We estimated a maximum liquid biopsy price of USD 187, which is substantially lower than currently listed prices. ABSTRACT: Breast cancer screening is associated with harms, such as false-positives and overdiagnoses, and, thus, novel screen tests can be considered. Liquid biopsies have been proposed as a novel method for the early detection of cancer, but low cell-free DNA tumor fraction might pose a problem for the use in population screening. Using breast cancer microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia, we estimated the outcomes of using liquid biopsies in breast cancer screening in women aged 50 to 74 in the United States. For varying combinations of test sensitivity and specificity, we quantify the impact of the use of liquid biopsies on the harms and benefits of screening, and we estimate the maximum liquid biopsy price for cost-effective implementation in breast cancer screening at a cost-effectiveness threshold of USD 50,000. We investigate under what conditions liquid biopsies could be a suitable alternative to digital mammography and compare these conditions to a CCGA substudy. Outcomes were compared to digital mammography screening, and include mortality reduction, overdiagnoses, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the maximum price of a liquid biopsy for cost-effective implementation. When liquid biopsies are unable to detect DCIS, a large proportion of overdiagnosed cases is prevented but overall breast cancer mortality reduction and quality of life are lower, and costs are higher compared to digital mammography screening. Liquid biopsies prices should be restricted to USD 187 per liquid biopsy depending on test performance. Overall, liquid biopsies that are unable to detect ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) need to be able to detect small, early-stage tumors, with high specificity, at low costs in order to be an alternative to digital mammography. Liquid biopsies might be more suitable as an addition to digital mammography than as an alternative.