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Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic()
In response to the recent outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus governments have aimed to reduce the virus’s spread through, inter alia, non-pharmaceutical intervention. We address the question when such measures should be implemented and, once implemented, when to remove them. These issues are viewed th...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9221090/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35765314 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.034 |
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author | Huberts, Nick F.D. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. |
author_facet | Huberts, Nick F.D. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. |
author_sort | Huberts, Nick F.D. |
collection | PubMed |
description | In response to the recent outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus governments have aimed to reduce the virus’s spread through, inter alia, non-pharmaceutical intervention. We address the question when such measures should be implemented and, once implemented, when to remove them. These issues are viewed through a real-options lens and we develop an SIRD-like continuous-time Markov chain model to analyze a sequence of options: the option to intervene and introduce measures and, after intervention has started, the option to remove these. Measures can be imposed multiple times. We implement our model using estimates from empirical studies and, under fairly general assumptions, our main conclusions are that: (1) measures should be put in place not long after the first infections occur; (2) if the epidemic is discovered when there are many infected individuals already, then it is optimal never to introduce measures; (3) once the decision to introduce measures has been taken, these should stay in place until the number of susceptible or infected members of the population is close to zero; (4) it is never optimal to introduce a tier system to phase-in measures but it is optimal to use a tier system to phase-out measures; (5) a more infectious variant may reduce the duration of measures being in place; (6) the risk of infections being brought in by travelers should be curbed even when no other measures are in place. These results are robust to several variations of our base-case model. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9221090 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-92210902022-06-24 Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic() Huberts, Nick F.D. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. Eur J Oper Res Innovative Applications of O.R. In response to the recent outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus governments have aimed to reduce the virus’s spread through, inter alia, non-pharmaceutical intervention. We address the question when such measures should be implemented and, once implemented, when to remove them. These issues are viewed through a real-options lens and we develop an SIRD-like continuous-time Markov chain model to analyze a sequence of options: the option to intervene and introduce measures and, after intervention has started, the option to remove these. Measures can be imposed multiple times. We implement our model using estimates from empirical studies and, under fairly general assumptions, our main conclusions are that: (1) measures should be put in place not long after the first infections occur; (2) if the epidemic is discovered when there are many infected individuals already, then it is optimal never to introduce measures; (3) once the decision to introduce measures has been taken, these should stay in place until the number of susceptible or infected members of the population is close to zero; (4) it is never optimal to introduce a tier system to phase-in measures but it is optimal to use a tier system to phase-out measures; (5) a more infectious variant may reduce the duration of measures being in place; (6) the risk of infections being brought in by travelers should be curbed even when no other measures are in place. These results are robust to several variations of our base-case model. The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2023-03-16 2022-06-22 /pmc/articles/PMC9221090/ /pubmed/35765314 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.034 Text en © 2022 The Authors Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Innovative Applications of O.R. Huberts, Nick F.D. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic() |
title | Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic() |
title_full | Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic() |
title_fullStr | Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic() |
title_full_unstemmed | Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic() |
title_short | Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic() |
title_sort | optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic() |
topic | Innovative Applications of O.R. |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9221090/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35765314 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.034 |
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