Detection of Embryonic Trisomy 21 in the First Trimester Using Maternal Plasma Cell-Free RNA

Prenatal trisomy 21 (T21) screening commonly involves testing a maternal blood sample for fetal DNA aneuploidy. It is reliable but poses a cost barrier to universal screening. We hypothesized maternal plasma RNA screening might provide similar reliability but at a lower cost. Discovery experiments used plasma cell-free RNA from 20 women 11–13 weeks tested by RNA and miRNA microarrays followed by qRT-PCR. Thirty-six mRNAs and 18 small RNAs of the discovery cDNA were identified by qPCR as potential markers of embryonic T21. The second objective was validation of the RNA predictors in 998 independent pregnancies at 11–13 weeks including 50 T21. Initial analyses identified 9–15 differentially expressed RNA with modest predictive power (AUC < 0.70). The 54 RNAs were then subjected to machine learning. Eleven algorithms were trained on one partition and tested on an independent partition. The three best algorithms were identified by Kappa score and the effects of training/testing partition size and dataset class imbalance on prediction were evaluated. Six to ten RNAs predicted T21 with AUCs up to 1.00. The findings suggest that maternal plasma collected at 11–13 weeks, tested by qRT-PCR, and classified by machine learning, may accurately predict T21 for a lower cost than plasma DNA, thus opening the door to universal screening.