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Nomogram Predicting the Survival of Young-Onset Patients with Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases

Background: Although the global prevalence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is decreasing, there has been an increase in incidence among young-onset individuals, in whom the disease is associated with specific pathological characteristics, liver metastases, and a poor prognosis. Methods: From 2010 to 2016...

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Autores principales: Cheng, Xiaofei, Li, Yanqing, Chen, Dong, Xu, Xiangming, Liu, Fanlong, Zhao, Feng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9221975/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35741205
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics12061395
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author Cheng, Xiaofei
Li, Yanqing
Chen, Dong
Xu, Xiangming
Liu, Fanlong
Zhao, Feng
author_facet Cheng, Xiaofei
Li, Yanqing
Chen, Dong
Xu, Xiangming
Liu, Fanlong
Zhao, Feng
author_sort Cheng, Xiaofei
collection PubMed
description Background: Although the global prevalence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is decreasing, there has been an increase in incidence among young-onset individuals, in whom the disease is associated with specific pathological characteristics, liver metastases, and a poor prognosis. Methods: From 2010 to 2016, 1874 young-onset patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were randomly allocated to training and validation cohorts. Multivariate Cox analysis was used to identify independent prognostic variables, and a nomogram was created to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve analyses were used to determine nomogram accuracy and reliability. Results: Factors independently associated with young-onset CRLM CSS included primary tumor location, the degree of differentiation, histology, M stage, N stage, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level, and surgery (all p < 0.05). The C-indices of the CSS nomogram for the training and validation sets (compared to TNM stage) were 0.709 and 0.635, and 0.735 and 0.663, respectively. The AUC values for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.707, 0.708, and 0.755 in the training cohort and 0.765, 0.735, and 0.737 in the validation cohort, respectively; therefore, the nomogram had high sensitivity, and was superior to TNM staging. The calibration curves for the training and validation sets were relatively consistent. In addition, a similar result was observed with OS. Conclusions: We developed a unique nomogram incorporating clinical and pathological characteristics to predict the survival of young-onset patients with CRLM. This may serve as an early warning system allowing doctors to devise more effective treatment regimens.
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spelling pubmed-92219752022-06-24 Nomogram Predicting the Survival of Young-Onset Patients with Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases Cheng, Xiaofei Li, Yanqing Chen, Dong Xu, Xiangming Liu, Fanlong Zhao, Feng Diagnostics (Basel) Article Background: Although the global prevalence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is decreasing, there has been an increase in incidence among young-onset individuals, in whom the disease is associated with specific pathological characteristics, liver metastases, and a poor prognosis. Methods: From 2010 to 2016, 1874 young-onset patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were randomly allocated to training and validation cohorts. Multivariate Cox analysis was used to identify independent prognostic variables, and a nomogram was created to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve analyses were used to determine nomogram accuracy and reliability. Results: Factors independently associated with young-onset CRLM CSS included primary tumor location, the degree of differentiation, histology, M stage, N stage, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level, and surgery (all p < 0.05). The C-indices of the CSS nomogram for the training and validation sets (compared to TNM stage) were 0.709 and 0.635, and 0.735 and 0.663, respectively. The AUC values for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.707, 0.708, and 0.755 in the training cohort and 0.765, 0.735, and 0.737 in the validation cohort, respectively; therefore, the nomogram had high sensitivity, and was superior to TNM staging. The calibration curves for the training and validation sets were relatively consistent. In addition, a similar result was observed with OS. Conclusions: We developed a unique nomogram incorporating clinical and pathological characteristics to predict the survival of young-onset patients with CRLM. This may serve as an early warning system allowing doctors to devise more effective treatment regimens. MDPI 2022-06-04 /pmc/articles/PMC9221975/ /pubmed/35741205 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics12061395 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Cheng, Xiaofei
Li, Yanqing
Chen, Dong
Xu, Xiangming
Liu, Fanlong
Zhao, Feng
Nomogram Predicting the Survival of Young-Onset Patients with Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases
title Nomogram Predicting the Survival of Young-Onset Patients with Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases
title_full Nomogram Predicting the Survival of Young-Onset Patients with Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases
title_fullStr Nomogram Predicting the Survival of Young-Onset Patients with Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases
title_full_unstemmed Nomogram Predicting the Survival of Young-Onset Patients with Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases
title_short Nomogram Predicting the Survival of Young-Onset Patients with Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases
title_sort nomogram predicting the survival of young-onset patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9221975/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35741205
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics12061395
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