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A Comparison of Univariate and Multivariate Forecasting Models Predicting Emergency Department Patient Arrivals during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the existing concern about the uncertainty surrounding patient arrival and the overutilization of resources in emergency departments (EDs). The prediction of variations in patient arrivals is vital for managing limited healthcare resources and facilitating data-d...

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Autores principales: Etu, Egbe-Etu, Monplaisir, Leslie, Masoud, Sara, Arslanturk, Suzan, Emakhu, Joshua, Tenebe, Imokhai, Miller, Joseph B., Hagerman, Tom, Jourdan, Daniel, Krupp, Seth
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9222821/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35742171
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare10061120
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author Etu, Egbe-Etu
Monplaisir, Leslie
Masoud, Sara
Arslanturk, Suzan
Emakhu, Joshua
Tenebe, Imokhai
Miller, Joseph B.
Hagerman, Tom
Jourdan, Daniel
Krupp, Seth
author_facet Etu, Egbe-Etu
Monplaisir, Leslie
Masoud, Sara
Arslanturk, Suzan
Emakhu, Joshua
Tenebe, Imokhai
Miller, Joseph B.
Hagerman, Tom
Jourdan, Daniel
Krupp, Seth
author_sort Etu, Egbe-Etu
collection PubMed
description The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the existing concern about the uncertainty surrounding patient arrival and the overutilization of resources in emergency departments (EDs). The prediction of variations in patient arrivals is vital for managing limited healthcare resources and facilitating data-driven resource planning. The objective of this study was to forecast ED patient arrivals during a pandemic over different time horizons. A secondary objective was to compare the performance of different forecasting models in predicting ED patient arrivals. We included all ED patient encounters at an urban teaching hospital between January 2019 and December 2020. We divided the data into training and testing datasets and applied univariate and multivariable forecasting models to predict daily ED visits. The influence of COVID-19 lockdown and climatic factors were included in the multivariable models. The model evaluation consisted of the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) over different forecasting horizons. Our exploratory analysis illustrated that monthly and weekly patterns impact daily demand for care. The Holt–Winters approach outperformed all other univariate and multivariable forecasting models for short-term predictions, while the Long Short-Term Memory approach performed best in extended predictions. The developed forecasting models are able to accurately predict ED patient arrivals and peaks during a surge when tested on two years of data from a high-volume urban ED. These short- and long-term prediction models can potentially enhance ED and hospital resource planning.
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spelling pubmed-92228212022-06-24 A Comparison of Univariate and Multivariate Forecasting Models Predicting Emergency Department Patient Arrivals during the COVID-19 Pandemic Etu, Egbe-Etu Monplaisir, Leslie Masoud, Sara Arslanturk, Suzan Emakhu, Joshua Tenebe, Imokhai Miller, Joseph B. Hagerman, Tom Jourdan, Daniel Krupp, Seth Healthcare (Basel) Article The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the existing concern about the uncertainty surrounding patient arrival and the overutilization of resources in emergency departments (EDs). The prediction of variations in patient arrivals is vital for managing limited healthcare resources and facilitating data-driven resource planning. The objective of this study was to forecast ED patient arrivals during a pandemic over different time horizons. A secondary objective was to compare the performance of different forecasting models in predicting ED patient arrivals. We included all ED patient encounters at an urban teaching hospital between January 2019 and December 2020. We divided the data into training and testing datasets and applied univariate and multivariable forecasting models to predict daily ED visits. The influence of COVID-19 lockdown and climatic factors were included in the multivariable models. The model evaluation consisted of the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) over different forecasting horizons. Our exploratory analysis illustrated that monthly and weekly patterns impact daily demand for care. The Holt–Winters approach outperformed all other univariate and multivariable forecasting models for short-term predictions, while the Long Short-Term Memory approach performed best in extended predictions. The developed forecasting models are able to accurately predict ED patient arrivals and peaks during a surge when tested on two years of data from a high-volume urban ED. These short- and long-term prediction models can potentially enhance ED and hospital resource planning. MDPI 2022-06-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9222821/ /pubmed/35742171 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare10061120 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Etu, Egbe-Etu
Monplaisir, Leslie
Masoud, Sara
Arslanturk, Suzan
Emakhu, Joshua
Tenebe, Imokhai
Miller, Joseph B.
Hagerman, Tom
Jourdan, Daniel
Krupp, Seth
A Comparison of Univariate and Multivariate Forecasting Models Predicting Emergency Department Patient Arrivals during the COVID-19 Pandemic
title A Comparison of Univariate and Multivariate Forecasting Models Predicting Emergency Department Patient Arrivals during the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_full A Comparison of Univariate and Multivariate Forecasting Models Predicting Emergency Department Patient Arrivals during the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_fullStr A Comparison of Univariate and Multivariate Forecasting Models Predicting Emergency Department Patient Arrivals during the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_full_unstemmed A Comparison of Univariate and Multivariate Forecasting Models Predicting Emergency Department Patient Arrivals during the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_short A Comparison of Univariate and Multivariate Forecasting Models Predicting Emergency Department Patient Arrivals during the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_sort comparison of univariate and multivariate forecasting models predicting emergency department patient arrivals during the covid-19 pandemic
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9222821/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35742171
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare10061120
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