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Injury and Poisoning Mortality Trends in Urban and Rural China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Injury and poisoning, common public health problems, currently rank fifth among the causes of death in China. In this study, we aimed to analyze the trends and influencing factors of injury and poisoning mortality in urban and rural China using an age-period-cohort model. Crude mortality data for in...

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Autores principales: Yuan, Xin, Kou, Changgui, Zhang, Min, Ma, Wenyuan, Tang, Zhitao, Sun, Haiyan, Li, Wenjun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9223563/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35742421
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19127172
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author Yuan, Xin
Kou, Changgui
Zhang, Min
Ma, Wenyuan
Tang, Zhitao
Sun, Haiyan
Li, Wenjun
author_facet Yuan, Xin
Kou, Changgui
Zhang, Min
Ma, Wenyuan
Tang, Zhitao
Sun, Haiyan
Li, Wenjun
author_sort Yuan, Xin
collection PubMed
description Injury and poisoning, common public health problems, currently rank fifth among the causes of death in China. In this study, we aimed to analyze the trends and influencing factors of injury and poisoning mortality in urban and rural China using an age-period-cohort model. Crude mortality data for injury and poisoning by sex, age group, and region were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook (2006–2020). Age-standardized mortality rates for injury and poisoning in urban and rural areas were estimated using the Seventh Census of China 2020 population. The trends of injury and poisoning mortality were assessed using Joinpoint analysis. Age–period–cohort models were used to explore the age, period, and birth cohort effects affecting mortality risk. Over a 15-year period, age-standardized mortality rates decreased from 28.81/100,000 in 2006 to 24.78/100,000 in 2020 in urban areas and from 45.49/100,000 to 44.39/100,000 in rural areas. In the male population, the annual change in mortality was −0.4% (95% CI = −1.8%, 1.0%) in urban areas and −1.0% (95% CI = −1.9%, 0.0%) in rural areas. In the female population, the annual change in mortality was −1.2% (95% CI = −2.3%, −0.1%) in urban areas compared with −1.6% (95% CI = −3.1%, −0.1%) in rural areas. The age–period–cohort model showed a significant increase in urban and rural mortality rates starting at ages 49 and 39 years. Both showed a decline followed by an increase in the period. The cohort from 1929 to 2013 showed an overall trend of increasing and then decreasing. From 2006 to 2020, the overall injury and poisoning mortality rates in China showed a decreasing trend, and the mortality rates decreased faster in women than in men and in rural areas than in urban areas. Age effects were the most important risk factors for changes in injury and poisoning mortality. The results of this study will help researchers explore the possible causes of mortality changes in urban and rural areas and provide a scientific basis for injury and poisoning prevention and control priorities and policy formulation in China.
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spelling pubmed-92235632022-06-24 Injury and Poisoning Mortality Trends in Urban and Rural China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Yuan, Xin Kou, Changgui Zhang, Min Ma, Wenyuan Tang, Zhitao Sun, Haiyan Li, Wenjun Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Injury and poisoning, common public health problems, currently rank fifth among the causes of death in China. In this study, we aimed to analyze the trends and influencing factors of injury and poisoning mortality in urban and rural China using an age-period-cohort model. Crude mortality data for injury and poisoning by sex, age group, and region were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook (2006–2020). Age-standardized mortality rates for injury and poisoning in urban and rural areas were estimated using the Seventh Census of China 2020 population. The trends of injury and poisoning mortality were assessed using Joinpoint analysis. Age–period–cohort models were used to explore the age, period, and birth cohort effects affecting mortality risk. Over a 15-year period, age-standardized mortality rates decreased from 28.81/100,000 in 2006 to 24.78/100,000 in 2020 in urban areas and from 45.49/100,000 to 44.39/100,000 in rural areas. In the male population, the annual change in mortality was −0.4% (95% CI = −1.8%, 1.0%) in urban areas and −1.0% (95% CI = −1.9%, 0.0%) in rural areas. In the female population, the annual change in mortality was −1.2% (95% CI = −2.3%, −0.1%) in urban areas compared with −1.6% (95% CI = −3.1%, −0.1%) in rural areas. The age–period–cohort model showed a significant increase in urban and rural mortality rates starting at ages 49 and 39 years. Both showed a decline followed by an increase in the period. The cohort from 1929 to 2013 showed an overall trend of increasing and then decreasing. From 2006 to 2020, the overall injury and poisoning mortality rates in China showed a decreasing trend, and the mortality rates decreased faster in women than in men and in rural areas than in urban areas. Age effects were the most important risk factors for changes in injury and poisoning mortality. The results of this study will help researchers explore the possible causes of mortality changes in urban and rural areas and provide a scientific basis for injury and poisoning prevention and control priorities and policy formulation in China. MDPI 2022-06-11 /pmc/articles/PMC9223563/ /pubmed/35742421 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19127172 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Yuan, Xin
Kou, Changgui
Zhang, Min
Ma, Wenyuan
Tang, Zhitao
Sun, Haiyan
Li, Wenjun
Injury and Poisoning Mortality Trends in Urban and Rural China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
title Injury and Poisoning Mortality Trends in Urban and Rural China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
title_full Injury and Poisoning Mortality Trends in Urban and Rural China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
title_fullStr Injury and Poisoning Mortality Trends in Urban and Rural China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Injury and Poisoning Mortality Trends in Urban and Rural China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
title_short Injury and Poisoning Mortality Trends in Urban and Rural China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
title_sort injury and poisoning mortality trends in urban and rural china from 2006 to 2020 based on age-period-cohort analysis
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9223563/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35742421
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19127172
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