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The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China

Declining fertility rates pose challenges to global economic, social, cultural and political development. Low fertility rates among rural floating populations are exacerbating these challenges. However, it is not clear whether and to what extent rural population mobility (RPM) has reduced migrants’...

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Autores principales: He, Qiang, Deng, Xin, Li, Chuan, Yan, Zhongcheng, Qi, Yanbin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9223699/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35742624
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19127365
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author He, Qiang
Deng, Xin
Li, Chuan
Yan, Zhongcheng
Qi, Yanbin
author_facet He, Qiang
Deng, Xin
Li, Chuan
Yan, Zhongcheng
Qi, Yanbin
author_sort He, Qiang
collection PubMed
description Declining fertility rates pose challenges to global economic, social, cultural and political development. Low fertility rates among rural floating populations are exacerbating these challenges. However, it is not clear whether and to what extent rural population mobility (RPM) has reduced migrants’ willingness to have children. At the same time, rural migration may represent a self-selection behavior (i.e., selection bias), and traditional measurement methods may be insufficient for effectively estimating the quantitative impacts of rural migration. Accordingly, the data from 1734 rural households from 28 provinces in mainland China were collected in the current study, and endogenous switching regression (ESR) models were used to correct the selection bias to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of RPM on fertility intention. The results revealed the following: (1) For rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 19.820%, their willingness to have female children would increase by 48.526%, and their willingness to have male children would drop by 26.711%. (2) For rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would drop by 55.982%, their willingness to have female children would drop by 18.294%, and their willingness to have male children would drop by 55.106%. (3) For eastern rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would decrease by 40.273%. For midwestern rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 24.786%. (4) For eastern rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 11.032%. (5) For midwestern rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would drop by 71.744%. The abovementioned findings can provide research support for other low-fertility countries or regions toward increasing fertility rates and addressing any imbalances in current gender ratios. They can also help to provide realistic strategies for alleviating the global population crisis.
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spelling pubmed-92236992022-06-24 The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China He, Qiang Deng, Xin Li, Chuan Yan, Zhongcheng Qi, Yanbin Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Declining fertility rates pose challenges to global economic, social, cultural and political development. Low fertility rates among rural floating populations are exacerbating these challenges. However, it is not clear whether and to what extent rural population mobility (RPM) has reduced migrants’ willingness to have children. At the same time, rural migration may represent a self-selection behavior (i.e., selection bias), and traditional measurement methods may be insufficient for effectively estimating the quantitative impacts of rural migration. Accordingly, the data from 1734 rural households from 28 provinces in mainland China were collected in the current study, and endogenous switching regression (ESR) models were used to correct the selection bias to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of RPM on fertility intention. The results revealed the following: (1) For rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 19.820%, their willingness to have female children would increase by 48.526%, and their willingness to have male children would drop by 26.711%. (2) For rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would drop by 55.982%, their willingness to have female children would drop by 18.294%, and their willingness to have male children would drop by 55.106%. (3) For eastern rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would decrease by 40.273%. For midwestern rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 24.786%. (4) For eastern rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 11.032%. (5) For midwestern rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would drop by 71.744%. The abovementioned findings can provide research support for other low-fertility countries or regions toward increasing fertility rates and addressing any imbalances in current gender ratios. They can also help to provide realistic strategies for alleviating the global population crisis. MDPI 2022-06-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9223699/ /pubmed/35742624 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19127365 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
He, Qiang
Deng, Xin
Li, Chuan
Yan, Zhongcheng
Qi, Yanbin
The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China
title The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China
title_full The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China
title_fullStr The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China
title_full_unstemmed The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China
title_short The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China
title_sort impact of rural population mobility on fertility intention under the comprehensive two-child policy: evidence from rural china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9223699/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35742624
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19127365
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