National emissions inventory and future trends in greenhouse gases and other air pollutants from civil airports in China

Civil aviation is an important source of air pollutants, but this field has received insufficient attention in China. Based on the standard emissions model of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and actual flight information from 241 airports, this study estimated a comprehensive emissions inventory for 2010–2020 by considering the impacts of mixing layer height. The results showed that annual pollutant emissions rapidly trended upward along with population and economic growth; however, the emissions decreased owing to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(X)), particulate matter (PM), methane (CH(4)), nitrous oxide (N(2)O), carbon dioxide (CO(2)), and water vapor (H(2)O) were 34.34, 65.73, 0.10, 0.34, 0.40, 14,706.26, and 5733.11 Gg, respectively. The emissions of total volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from China’s civil airports in 2020 were estimated at 17.20 Gg; the major components were formic acid (1.70 Gg), acetic acid (1.62 Gg), 1-butylene (1.03 Gg), acetone (0.96 Gg), and acetaldehyde (0.93 Gg). The distribution of pollutant emissions was consistent with the level of economic development, mainly in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. In addition, we estimated future pollution trends for the aviation industry under four scenarios. Under the comprehensive scenario, which considered the impacts of economic growth, passenger turnover, cargo turnover, COVID-19, and technological efficiency, the levels of typical pollutants were expected to increase by nearly 1.51-fold from 2010 to 2035. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-022-21425-1.