Cargando…
Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas
Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9226159/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35739282 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w |
_version_ | 1784733789995401216 |
---|---|
author | Magnan, Alexandre K. Oppenheimer, Michael Garschagen, Matthias Buchanan, Maya K. Duvat, Virginie K. E. Forbes, Donald L. Ford, James D. Lambert, Erwin Petzold, Jan Renaud, Fabrice G. Sebesvari, Zita van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Hinkel, Jochen Pörtner, Hans-Otto |
author_facet | Magnan, Alexandre K. Oppenheimer, Michael Garschagen, Matthias Buchanan, Maya K. Duvat, Virginie K. E. Forbes, Donald L. Ford, James D. Lambert, Erwin Petzold, Jan Renaud, Fabrice G. Sebesvari, Zita van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Hinkel, Jochen Pörtner, Hans-Otto |
author_sort | Magnan, Alexandre K. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9226159 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-92261592022-06-25 Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas Magnan, Alexandre K. Oppenheimer, Michael Garschagen, Matthias Buchanan, Maya K. Duvat, Virginie K. E. Forbes, Donald L. Ford, James D. Lambert, Erwin Petzold, Jan Renaud, Fabrice G. Sebesvari, Zita van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Hinkel, Jochen Pörtner, Hans-Otto Sci Rep Article Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-06-23 /pmc/articles/PMC9226159/ /pubmed/35739282 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Magnan, Alexandre K. Oppenheimer, Michael Garschagen, Matthias Buchanan, Maya K. Duvat, Virginie K. E. Forbes, Donald L. Ford, James D. Lambert, Erwin Petzold, Jan Renaud, Fabrice G. Sebesvari, Zita van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Hinkel, Jochen Pörtner, Hans-Otto Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title | Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title_full | Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title_fullStr | Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title_full_unstemmed | Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title_short | Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title_sort | sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9226159/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35739282 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w |
work_keys_str_mv | AT magnanalexandrek sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT oppenheimermichael sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT garschagenmatthias sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT buchananmayak sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT duvatvirginieke sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT forbesdonaldl sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT fordjamesd sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT lamberterwin sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT petzoldjan sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT renaudfabriceg sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT sebesvarizita sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT vandewalroderiksw sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT hinkeljochen sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas AT portnerhansotto sealevelriserisksandsocietaladaptationbenefitsinlowlyingcoastalareas |