Individual beliefs about temporal continuity explain variation of perceptual biases

Perception of magnitudes such as duration or distance is often found to be systematically biased. The biases, which result from incorporating prior knowledge in the perceptual process, can vary considerably between individuals. The variations are commonly attributed to differences in sensory precision and reliance on priors. However, another factor not considered so far is the implicit belief about how successive sensory stimuli are generated: independently from each other or with certain temporal continuity. The main types of explanatory models proposed so far—static or iterative—mirror this distinction but cannot adequately explain individual biases. Here we propose a new unifying model that explains individual variation as combination of sensory precision and beliefs about temporal continuity and predicts the experimentally found changes in biases when altering temporal continuity. Thus, according to the model, individual differences in perception depend on beliefs about how stimuli are generated in the world.