A critical assessment framework to identify, quantify and interpret the sources of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses

BACKGROUND: Using a standardized approach to describe the sources of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses might bring added value to the local critical assessment procedure of reimbursement submissions in Hungary. The aim of this research is to present a procedural framework to identify, quantify and interpret sources of uncertainty, using the reimbursement dossier of darolutamide as an illustrative example. METHODS: In the procedural framework designed for the critical assessment of cost-effectiveness analyses, the quantifiability of an identified source of uncertainty is assessed through the input parameters of the originally submitted model, which is followed by the interpretation of its impact on estimates of costs and outcomes compared to the base case cost-effectiveness conclusion. RESULTS: Based on our experiences with the recent reimbursement dossier of darolutamide, the significant and quantifiable sources of uncertainty were the time horizon of the economic analysis; the restriction of the efficacy analysis population; long-term relative effectiveness of darolutamide; price discount on subsequent therapies. We identified resource use patterns for comparator and subsequent therapies as a quantifiable, yet non-significant source of uncertainty. The EQ-5D value set used to estimate utility values was identified as a non-quantifiable and potentially not significant source of uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: The procedural framework, demonstrated with an example, was sufficiently flexible and coherent to document and structure the sources of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses. The full-scale use of this framework is desirable during the decision-making process for reimbursement in Hungary. The further formalization of identifying sources of uncertainty is a possible subject of methodological development.