Jump-Chain Simulation of Markov Substitution Processes Over Phylogenies

We draw attention to an under-appreciated simulation method for generating artificial data in a phylogenetic context. The approach, which we refer to as jump-chain simulation, can invoke rich models of molecular evolution having intractable likelihood functions. As an example, we simulate data under a context-dependent model allowing for CpG hypermutability and show how such a feature can mislead common codon models used for detecting positive selection. We discuss more generally how this method can serve to elucidate the ways by which currently used models for inference are susceptible to violations of their underlying assumptions. Finally, we show how the method could serve as an inference engine in the Approximate Bayesian Computation framework. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00239-022-10058-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.