Sparse logistic regression revealed the associations between HBV PreS quasispecies and hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) has been proved highly associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). AIMS: The purpose of the study is to investigate the association between HBV preS region quasispecies and HCC development, as well as to develop HCC diagnosis model using HBV preS region quasispecies. METHODS: A total of 104 chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and 117 HBV-related HCC patients were enrolled. HBV preS region was sequenced using next generation sequencing (NGS) and the nucleotide entropy was calculated for quasispecies evaluation. Sparse logistic regression (SLR) was used to predict HCC development and prediction performances were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: Entropy of HBV preS1, preS2 regions and several nucleotide points showed significant divergence between CHB and HCC patients. Using SLR, the classification of HCC/CHB groups achieved a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.883 in the training data and 0.795 in the test data. The prediction model was also validated by a completely independent dataset from Hong Kong. The 10 selected nucleotide positions showed significantly different entropy between CHB and HCC patients. The HBV quasispecies also classified three clinical parameters, including HBeAg, HBVDNA, and Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) with the AUC value greater than 0.6 in the test data. CONCLUSIONS: Using NGS and SLR, the association between HBV preS region nucleotide entropy and HCC development was validated in our study and this could promote the understanding of HCC progression mechanism. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12985-022-01836-9.