Prediction of Prehospital Change of the Cardiac Rhythm From Nonshockable to Shockable in Out‐of‐Hospital Patients With Cardiac Arrest: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Nationwide, Multicenter, Prospective Registry

BACKGROUND: Predicting a spontaneous rhythm change from nonshockable to shockable before hospital arrival in patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest can help emergency medical services develop better strategies for prehospital treatment. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of spontaneous rhythm change before hospital arrival in patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest and develop a predictive scoring system. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively reviewed data of eligible patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest with an initial nonshockable rhythm registered in a nationwide registry between June 2014 and December 2017. We performed a multivariable analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model to identify predictors of a spontaneous rhythm change, and a ridge regression model for predicting it. The data of 25 804 patients were analyzed (derivation cohort, n=17 743; validation cohort, n=8061). The rhythm change event rate was 4.1% (724/17 743) in the derivation cohort, and 4.0% (326/8061) in the validation cohorts. Age, sex, presence of a witness, initial rhythm, chest compression by a bystander, shock with an automated external defibrillator by a bystander, and cause of the cardiac arrest were all found to be independently associated with spontaneous rhythm change before hospital arrival. Based on this finding, we developed and validated the Rhythm Change Before Hospital Arrival for Nonshockable score. The Harrell’s concordance index values of the score were 0.71 and 0.67 in the internal and external validations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Seven factors were identified as predictors of a spontaneous rhythm change from nonshockable to shockable before hospital arrival. We developed and validated a score to predict rhythm change before hospital arrival.