Measuring spatial accessibility to refuge green space after earthquakes: A case study of Nanjing, China

The construction of refuge spaces in rapidly urbanizing historic cities is a challenging task owing to their complex urban form, unique urban fabric, and historic preservation requirements. Refuge green space (RGS) is a green space that can serve as an emergency shelter in cities, providing a flexible means to increase the emergency shelter capacity for rapidly urbanized historic cities. After major earthquakes, spatial accessibility to GRSs is a critical planning strategy for disaster prevention and emergency response in historic cities. To match the RGS planning with the emergency service demand, we must examine the spatial disparity in access to existing RGSs. In this study, the urban area of Nanjing was selected as the target region to analyze the spatial disparity in access to RGSs using the Gaussian two-step floating catchment area method at four evacuation times (10, 20, 30, and 60 min). The results showed that the spatial accessibility exhibited clustering characteristics, where high-accessibility spaces were mainly distributed in the northern and southern regions of Nanjing. The increase in the evacuation time improved accessibility to RGSs, but the existing RGSs still could not sufficiently satisfy the emergency shelter needs of citizens. Based on the bivariate local Moran’s I analysis of the RGS accessibility and population density, the spatial mismatch regions were dominant in the center of the urban area. These findings not only are expected to assist emergency planners by improving their strategic plans for emergency shelter investment in Nanjing and their ability to respond to catastrophic earthquakes, but also provide a strong reference for the construction of a safe environment in other rapidly developing historic cities that face earthquake threats.