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Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model

The vaccines are considered to be important for the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, considering the limited vaccine supply within an extended period of time in many countries where COVID-19 vaccine booster shot are taken and new vaccines are developed to suppr...

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Autores principales: Zuo, Chao, Meng, Zeyang, Zhu, Fenping, Zheng, Yuzhi, Ling, Yuting
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9240634/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35784231
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.876551
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author Zuo, Chao
Meng, Zeyang
Zhu, Fenping
Zheng, Yuzhi
Ling, Yuting
author_facet Zuo, Chao
Meng, Zeyang
Zhu, Fenping
Zheng, Yuzhi
Ling, Yuting
author_sort Zuo, Chao
collection PubMed
description The vaccines are considered to be important for the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, considering the limited vaccine supply within an extended period of time in many countries where COVID-19 vaccine booster shot are taken and new vaccines are developed to suppress the mutation of virus, designing an effective vaccination strategy is extremely important to reduce the number of deaths and infections. Then, the simulations were implemented to study the relative reduction in morbidity and mortality of vaccine allocation strategies by using the proposed model and actual South Africa's epidemiological data. Our results indicated that in light of South Africa's demographics, vaccinating older age groups (>60 years) largely reduced the cumulative deaths and the “0–20 first” strategy was the most effective way to reduce confirmed cases. In addition, “21–30 first” and “31–40 first” strategies have also had a positive effect. Partial vaccination resulted in lower numbers of infections and deaths under different control measures compared with full vaccination in low-income countries. In addition, we analyzed the sensitivity of daily testing volume and infection rate, which are critical to optimize vaccine allocation. However, comprehensive reduction in infections was mainly affected by the vaccine proportion of the target age group. An increase in the proportion of vaccines given priority to “0–20” groups always had a favorable effect, and the prioritizing vaccine allocation among the “60+” age group with 60% of the total amount of vaccine consistently resulted in the greatest reduction in deaths. Meanwhile, we observed a significant distinction in the effect of COVID-19 vaccine allocation policies under varying priority strategies on relative reductions in the effective reproduction number. Our results could help evaluate to control measures performance and the improvement of vaccine allocation strategy for COVID-19 epidemic.
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spelling pubmed-92406342022-06-30 Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model Zuo, Chao Meng, Zeyang Zhu, Fenping Zheng, Yuzhi Ling, Yuting Front Public Health Public Health The vaccines are considered to be important for the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, considering the limited vaccine supply within an extended period of time in many countries where COVID-19 vaccine booster shot are taken and new vaccines are developed to suppress the mutation of virus, designing an effective vaccination strategy is extremely important to reduce the number of deaths and infections. Then, the simulations were implemented to study the relative reduction in morbidity and mortality of vaccine allocation strategies by using the proposed model and actual South Africa's epidemiological data. Our results indicated that in light of South Africa's demographics, vaccinating older age groups (>60 years) largely reduced the cumulative deaths and the “0–20 first” strategy was the most effective way to reduce confirmed cases. In addition, “21–30 first” and “31–40 first” strategies have also had a positive effect. Partial vaccination resulted in lower numbers of infections and deaths under different control measures compared with full vaccination in low-income countries. In addition, we analyzed the sensitivity of daily testing volume and infection rate, which are critical to optimize vaccine allocation. However, comprehensive reduction in infections was mainly affected by the vaccine proportion of the target age group. An increase in the proportion of vaccines given priority to “0–20” groups always had a favorable effect, and the prioritizing vaccine allocation among the “60+” age group with 60% of the total amount of vaccine consistently resulted in the greatest reduction in deaths. Meanwhile, we observed a significant distinction in the effect of COVID-19 vaccine allocation policies under varying priority strategies on relative reductions in the effective reproduction number. Our results could help evaluate to control measures performance and the improvement of vaccine allocation strategy for COVID-19 epidemic. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-06-15 /pmc/articles/PMC9240634/ /pubmed/35784231 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.876551 Text en Copyright © 2022 Zuo, Meng, Zhu, Zheng and Ling. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Public Health
Zuo, Chao
Meng, Zeyang
Zhu, Fenping
Zheng, Yuzhi
Ling, Yuting
Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model
title Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model
title_full Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model
title_fullStr Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model
title_full_unstemmed Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model
title_short Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model
title_sort assessing vaccination prioritization strategies for covid-19 in south africa based on age-specific compartment model
topic Public Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9240634/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35784231
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.876551
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