The risk of incident atrial fibrillation in patients with type 2 diabetes treated with sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND: Although a few meta-analyses were conducted to compare the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) between sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA), and other anti-hyperglycemic agents using indirect or direct comparison, the above analyses showed conflicting results with each other. We aimed to evaluate the risk of new-onset AF associated with the use of SGLT2i, GLP-1RA, and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP4i) among a large longitudinal cohort of diabetic patients. METHODS: In this nationwide retrospective cohort study based on the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, a total of 344,893, 44,370, and 393,100 consecutive patients with type 2 diabetes without preexisting AF receiving GLP-1RA, SGLT2i, and DPP4i, respectively, were enrolled from May 1, 2016, to December 31, 2019. We used 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) to balance covariates across paired study groups. Patients were followed from the drug index date until the occurrence of AF, death, discontinuation of the index drug, or the end of the study period (December 31, 2020), whichever occurred first. RESULTS: After PSM, there were 245,442, 43,682, and 39,190 paired cohorts of SGLT2i-DPP4i, SGLT2i-GLP-1RA, and GLP-1RA-DPP4i, respectively. SGLT2i treatment was associated with lower risk of new-onset AF in participants with type 2 diabetes compared with either DPP4i [hazard ratio (HR):0.90; 95% confidential interval (CI) 0.84–0.96; P = 0.0028] or GLP-1RA [HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.63–0.88; P = 0.0007] treatment after PSM. There was no difference in the risk of incident AF between GLP-1RA and DPP4i users [HR 1.01; 95% CI 0.86–1.19; P = 0.8980]. The above findings persisted among several important subgroups. Dapagliflozin was specifically associated with a lower risk of new-onset AF compared with DPP4i (P interaction = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with DPP4i, SGLT2i but not GLP-1RA was associated with a lower risk of incident AF in patients with type 2 diabetes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01549-x.