Development of a Validated Diabetes Risk Chart as a Simple Tool to Predict the Onset of Diabetes in Bogor, Indonesia

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple, non-invasive tool for predicting the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methodology. A total of 4418 nondiabetic respondents living in Bogor were included in this cohort study. Their ages ranged from 25 to 60 years old and were followed for 6 years with interviews, physical examinations and laboratory tests. The investigators used logistic regression to create a tool for diabetes risk determination. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of T2DM was 17.9%. Risk factors significantly associated with T2DM included age, obesity, central obesity, hypertension and lack of physical activity. The Bogor Diabetes Risk Prediction (BDRP) chart had a cut-off of 0.128, with sensitivity of 76.6% and specificity of 50.3%. The Positive Predictive Value (PPV) was 21.6% and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) was 92.3%. The Area under the Curve (AUC) was 0.70 with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.675-0.721. CONCLUSION: The BDRP chart is a simple and non-invasive tool to predict T2DM. In addition, the BDRP chart is reliable and can be easily used in primary health care.