A Nomogram to Predict Survival in Patients With Locoregional Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Receiving Comprehensive Treatment

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to establish a prognostic stratified model of chemotherapy-based comprehensive treatment for patients with locoregional recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC), to help individualized treatment decision-making. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study retrospectively reviewed patients with lrNPC who received chemotherapy-based comprehensive treatment from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2018. A total of 422 eligible patients were divided into test (n = 338) and validation (n = 84) cohorts. A LASSO cox regression model was used to identify significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in the test cohort. A nomogram was then developed based on a combined consideration of clinically meaningful prognostic factors and statistically significant prognostic factors. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. RESULTS: Five significant factors were identified: age, albumin (ALB), T stage after recurrent (rT), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and systematic immune-inflammation index (SII). The nomogram was established with these five factors. C-index was 0.636 in the test cohort and 0.610 in the validation cohort. The calibration curves for the OS rate at 3, and 5 years showed an excellent agreement in both cohorts. In addition, the corresponding risk classification system successfully classified patients into low- and high-risk groups and performed well in stratification (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram shows well prognostic performance for lrNPC patients receiving chemotherapy-based comprehensive treatment.