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A model for Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt)—Triticum aestivum (Wheat) system under changing environmental conditions

Karnal bunt (KB) of wheat incited by Tilletia indica Mitra is now gaining importance from the last few years due to its increasing incidence. Regular surveys are conducted to collect wheat grains samples from different grain markets of Punjab, India. Since weather plays a significant role in the ini...

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Autores principales: Bala, Ritu, Kaur, Jaspal, Tak, Parminder Singh, Sandhu, Sarabjot Kaur, Pannu, Pushpinder Paul Singh
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer India 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9244119/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35789686
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42360-022-00520-w
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author Bala, Ritu
Kaur, Jaspal
Tak, Parminder Singh
Sandhu, Sarabjot Kaur
Pannu, Pushpinder Paul Singh
author_facet Bala, Ritu
Kaur, Jaspal
Tak, Parminder Singh
Sandhu, Sarabjot Kaur
Pannu, Pushpinder Paul Singh
author_sort Bala, Ritu
collection PubMed
description Karnal bunt (KB) of wheat incited by Tilletia indica Mitra is now gaining importance from the last few years due to its increasing incidence. Regular surveys are conducted to collect wheat grains samples from different grain markets of Punjab, India. Since weather plays a significant role in the initiation as well as the development of Karnal bunt. Thus, the variation in Karnal bunt incidence worked out and is being interpreted in relation to the prevailing environmental conditions during the most susceptible stage for the two decades (1991–92 to 2014–15) for the Punjab, India. The incidence of Karnal bunt was correlated with the weather parameters during the February and March of the corresponding year. The correlation analysis revealed the positive role of rainfall, rainy days, evening relative humidity, and Humid thermal index of March and the negative role of sunshine hours of February in the development and incidence of Karnal bunt. By using these parameters, a multiple regression model was developed and validated for forecasting the disease. The regression analysis showed a coefficient of determination of 0.77 and a D.W value of 1.88. The detailed analysis of historical data for more than two decades divulged the amount of total rainfall as well as the number of rainy days of March as the most critical factor for the Karnal bunt development. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42360-022-00520-w.
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spelling pubmed-92441192022-06-30 A model for Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt)—Triticum aestivum (Wheat) system under changing environmental conditions Bala, Ritu Kaur, Jaspal Tak, Parminder Singh Sandhu, Sarabjot Kaur Pannu, Pushpinder Paul Singh Indian Phytopathol Research Article Karnal bunt (KB) of wheat incited by Tilletia indica Mitra is now gaining importance from the last few years due to its increasing incidence. Regular surveys are conducted to collect wheat grains samples from different grain markets of Punjab, India. Since weather plays a significant role in the initiation as well as the development of Karnal bunt. Thus, the variation in Karnal bunt incidence worked out and is being interpreted in relation to the prevailing environmental conditions during the most susceptible stage for the two decades (1991–92 to 2014–15) for the Punjab, India. The incidence of Karnal bunt was correlated with the weather parameters during the February and March of the corresponding year. The correlation analysis revealed the positive role of rainfall, rainy days, evening relative humidity, and Humid thermal index of March and the negative role of sunshine hours of February in the development and incidence of Karnal bunt. By using these parameters, a multiple regression model was developed and validated for forecasting the disease. The regression analysis showed a coefficient of determination of 0.77 and a D.W value of 1.88. The detailed analysis of historical data for more than two decades divulged the amount of total rainfall as well as the number of rainy days of March as the most critical factor for the Karnal bunt development. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42360-022-00520-w. Springer India 2022-06-25 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC9244119/ /pubmed/35789686 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42360-022-00520-w Text en © Indian Phytopathological Society 2022 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Research Article
Bala, Ritu
Kaur, Jaspal
Tak, Parminder Singh
Sandhu, Sarabjot Kaur
Pannu, Pushpinder Paul Singh
A model for Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt)—Triticum aestivum (Wheat) system under changing environmental conditions
title A model for Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt)—Triticum aestivum (Wheat) system under changing environmental conditions
title_full A model for Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt)—Triticum aestivum (Wheat) system under changing environmental conditions
title_fullStr A model for Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt)—Triticum aestivum (Wheat) system under changing environmental conditions
title_full_unstemmed A model for Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt)—Triticum aestivum (Wheat) system under changing environmental conditions
title_short A model for Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt)—Triticum aestivum (Wheat) system under changing environmental conditions
title_sort model for tilletia indica (karnal bunt)—triticum aestivum (wheat) system under changing environmental conditions
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9244119/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35789686
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42360-022-00520-w
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