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Development and validation of a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with ulcerative colitis: a single-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND: The natural disease course for patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) is heterogeneous and few data are available on the indolent course of UC and its related factors. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with UC. METHODS: Data of patients dia...

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Autores principales: Li, Na, Zhan, Shukai, Liu, Caiguang, Li, Tong, Tu, Tong, Chen, Baili, He, Yao, Chen, Minhu, Zeng, Zhirong, Zhuang, Xiaojun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9245125/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35785264
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gastro/goac029
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author Li, Na
Zhan, Shukai
Liu, Caiguang
Li, Tong
Tu, Tong
Chen, Baili
He, Yao
Chen, Minhu
Zeng, Zhirong
Zhuang, Xiaojun
author_facet Li, Na
Zhan, Shukai
Liu, Caiguang
Li, Tong
Tu, Tong
Chen, Baili
He, Yao
Chen, Minhu
Zeng, Zhirong
Zhuang, Xiaojun
author_sort Li, Na
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The natural disease course for patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) is heterogeneous and few data are available on the indolent course of UC and its related factors. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with UC. METHODS: Data of patients diagnosed with UC in the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (Guangzhou, China) between April 2007 and February 2021 were retrospectively analysed. Indolent course was defined as a disease course without need for strict interventions (steroids, immunomodulators, biological agents, hospitalization, or surgery therapy) during the follow-up period. The whole cohort was randomly divided into training set and validation set. The nomogram was constructed in the training set based on the results of univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration plots. In addition, we internally validated the nomogram via the bootstrap method and the validation set. RESULTS: Of 969 treatment-naive patients with UC, 771 (79.6%) had an indolent course after diagnosis. Of these, 313 patients were included in the development and validation of the nomogram. The nomogram incorporating age, disease activity, C-reactive protein, and platelet count showed good calibration and discrimination. The C-index was 0.759 (0.741 in bootstrap validation) and the AUC at 2, 4, and 6 years was 0.767, 0.782, and 0.775, respectively. The nomogram performed well when applied to the validation set. CONCLUSION: A majority of patients with UC had an indolent course after diagnosis. The nomogram developed in this study might be useful in therapeutic decision-making and follow-up management for patients with UC.
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spelling pubmed-92451252022-07-01 Development and validation of a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with ulcerative colitis: a single-center retrospective study Li, Na Zhan, Shukai Liu, Caiguang Li, Tong Tu, Tong Chen, Baili He, Yao Chen, Minhu Zeng, Zhirong Zhuang, Xiaojun Gastroenterol Rep (Oxf) Original Article BACKGROUND: The natural disease course for patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) is heterogeneous and few data are available on the indolent course of UC and its related factors. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with UC. METHODS: Data of patients diagnosed with UC in the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (Guangzhou, China) between April 2007 and February 2021 were retrospectively analysed. Indolent course was defined as a disease course without need for strict interventions (steroids, immunomodulators, biological agents, hospitalization, or surgery therapy) during the follow-up period. The whole cohort was randomly divided into training set and validation set. The nomogram was constructed in the training set based on the results of univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration plots. In addition, we internally validated the nomogram via the bootstrap method and the validation set. RESULTS: Of 969 treatment-naive patients with UC, 771 (79.6%) had an indolent course after diagnosis. Of these, 313 patients were included in the development and validation of the nomogram. The nomogram incorporating age, disease activity, C-reactive protein, and platelet count showed good calibration and discrimination. The C-index was 0.759 (0.741 in bootstrap validation) and the AUC at 2, 4, and 6 years was 0.767, 0.782, and 0.775, respectively. The nomogram performed well when applied to the validation set. CONCLUSION: A majority of patients with UC had an indolent course after diagnosis. The nomogram developed in this study might be useful in therapeutic decision-making and follow-up management for patients with UC. Oxford University Press 2022-06-30 /pmc/articles/PMC9245125/ /pubmed/35785264 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gastro/goac029 Text en © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press and Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com
spellingShingle Original Article
Li, Na
Zhan, Shukai
Liu, Caiguang
Li, Tong
Tu, Tong
Chen, Baili
He, Yao
Chen, Minhu
Zeng, Zhirong
Zhuang, Xiaojun
Development and validation of a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with ulcerative colitis: a single-center retrospective study
title Development and validation of a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with ulcerative colitis: a single-center retrospective study
title_full Development and validation of a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with ulcerative colitis: a single-center retrospective study
title_fullStr Development and validation of a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with ulcerative colitis: a single-center retrospective study
title_full_unstemmed Development and validation of a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with ulcerative colitis: a single-center retrospective study
title_short Development and validation of a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with ulcerative colitis: a single-center retrospective study
title_sort development and validation of a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with ulcerative colitis: a single-center retrospective study
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9245125/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35785264
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gastro/goac029
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