Preoperative Sonographic Prediction of Limited Axillary Disease in Patients with Primary Breast Cancer Meeting the Z0011 Criteria: an Alternative to Sentinel Node Biopsy?

PURPOSE: To assess the accuracy of preoperative sonographic staging for prediction of limited axillary disease (LAD, one or two metastatic lymph nodes) and to identify factors associated with high prediction–pathology concordance in patients with early-stage breast cancer meeting the Z0011 criteria. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients treated between January 2015 and January 2020 were included in this retrospective, multicentric analysis of prospectively acquired service databases. The accuracy of LAD prediction was assessed separately for patients with one and two suspicious lymph nodes on preoperative sonography. Test validity outcomes for LAD prediction were calculated for both groups, and a multivariate model was used to identify factors associated with high accuracy of LAD prediction. RESULTS: Of 2059 enrolled patients, 1513 underwent sentinel node biopsy, 436 primary and 110 secondary axillary dissection. For LAD prediction in patients with one suspicious lymph node on preoperative ultrasound, sensitivity was 92% (95% CI 87–95%), negative predictive value (NPV) was 92% (95% CI 87–95%), and the false-negative rate (FNR) was 8% (95% CI 5–13%). For patients with two preoperatively suspicious nodes, the sensitivity, NPV, and FNR were 89% (95% CI 84–93%), 73% (62–83%), and 11% (95% CI 7–16%), respectively. On multivariate analysis, the number of suspicious lymph nodes was associated inversely with correct LAD prediction ([OR 0.01 (95% CI 0.01–0.93), p ≤ 0.01]. CONCLUSIONS: Sonographic axillary staging in patients with one metastatic lymph node predicted by preoperative ultrasound showed high accuracy and a false-negative rate comparable to sentinel node biopsy for prediction of limited axillary disease.