Alcohol use trajectories among U.S. adults during the first 42 weeks of the COVID‐19 pandemic

BACKGROUND: This study characterized the prevalence, drinking patterns, and sociodemographic characteristics of U.S. adult subpopulations with distinct drinking trajectories during the COVID‐19 pandemic's first 42 weeks. METHODS: Adult respondents (n = 8130) in a nationally representative prospective longitudinal study completed 21 biweekly web surveys (March 2020 to January 2021). Past‐week alcohol drinking frequency (drinking days [range: 0 to 7]) and intensity (binge drinking on usual past‐week drinking day [yes/no]) were assessed at each timepoint. Growth mixture models identified multiple subpopulations with homogenous drinking trajectories based on mean drinking days or binge drinking proportional probabilities across time. RESULTS: Four drinking frequency trajectories were identified: Minimal/stable (72.8% [95% CI = 71.8 to 73.8]) with <1 mean past‐week drinking days throughout; Moderate/late decreasing (6.7% [95% CI = 6.2 to 7.3) with 3.13 mean March drinking days and reductions during summer, reaching 2.12 days by January 2021; Moderate/early increasing (12.9% [95% CI = 12.2 to 13.6) with 2.13 mean March drinking days that increased in April and then plateaued, ending with 3.20 mean days in January 2021; and Near daily/early increasing (7.6% [95% CI = 7.0 to 8.2]) with 5.58 mean March drinking days that continued increasing without returning to baseline. Four drinking intensity trajectories were identified: Minimal/stable (85.8% [95% CI = 85.0% to 86.5%]) with <0.01 binge drinking probabilities throughout; Low‐to‐moderate/fluctuating (7.4% [95% CI = 6.8% to 8%]) with varying binge probabilities across timepoints (range:0.12 to 0.26); Moderate/mid increasing (4.2% [95% CI = 3.7% to 4.6%]) with 0.39 April binge drinking probability rising to 0.65 during August–September without returning to baseline; High/early increasing trajectory (2.7% [95% CI = 2.3% to 3%]) with 0.84 binge drinking probability rising to 0.96 by June without returning to baseline. Males, Whites, middle‐aged/older adults, college degree recipients, those consistently working, and those above the poverty limit were overrepresented in various increasing (vs. minimal/stable) frequency trajectories. Males, Whites, nonmarried, those without college degree, 18 to 39‐year‐olds, and middle aged were overrepresented in increasing (vs. minimal/stable) intensity trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: Several distinct U.S. adult sociodemographic subpopulations appear to have acquired new drinking patterns during the pandemic's first 42 weeks. Frequent alcohol use assessment in the COVID‐19 era could improve personalized medicine and population health efforts to reduce drinking.