Progression of Symptomatic Partial-Thickness Rotator Cuff Tears: Association With Initial Tear Involvement and Work Level

BACKGROUND: Partial-thickness rotator cuff tears (PTRCTs) often progress to full-thickness rotator cuff tears (FTRCTs). Thus, it is important to analyze the risk factors for tear progression to determine the proper timing of repair. PURPOSE: To identify the risk factors associated with progression of PTRCT. STUDY DESIGN: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: Included were 89 patients diagnosed with PTRCT on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans who underwent nonoperative treatment at the authors’ institution between August 2012 and August 2019. Patient characteristics, shoulder stiffness (compared with the contralateral shoulder); work level (classified as high [heavy manual labor], medium [manual labor with less activity], and low [sedentary activity]); and radiological factors including initial tear size, acromion type (flat, curved, hooked, or heel-shaped), and initial tear involvement (as a percentage of the rotator cuff tendon footprint length) were analyzed to assess their association with tear progression, defined as >20% increase in tear involvement. RESULTS: The mean MRI follow-up period was 22.3 ± 17.2 months (median, 16.1 months; range, 6.4-89.5 months), and tear progression was observed in 12 patients (13.5%). In these 12 patients, tear involvement increased by 60% of the rotator cuff footprint, while mediolateral (ML) and anteroposterior (AP) tear sizes progressed by 1.1 and 1.8 mm, respectively. Univariate regression analysis showed that shoulder stiffness (P = .031), work level (P = .001), initial tear involvement (P < .001), ML and AP tear sizes (P < .001 and P = .005, respectively), and acromion type (P = .003) were significantly associated with tear progression. Multivariate regression analysis showed that initial tear involvement (odds ratio [OR], 1.053; 95% CI, 1.006-1.102; P = .026) and high work level (OR, 15.831; 95% CI, 1.150-217.856; P = .039) were independent risk factors for tear progression. The cutoff value for initial tear involvement was 47.5% (sensitivity, 81.8%; specificity, 85.7%). CONCLUSION: Tear progression was observed in 14% of patients with PTRCT in this study. To predict tear progression, evaluating the tear involvement during initial MRI is essential. The risk of tear progression increased with initial tear involvement >47.5% and a heavy work level.