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Predicting the HIV/AIDS epidemic and measuring the effect of AIDS Conquering Project in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

To control the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in China, Guangxi government launched the 5-year Guangxi AIDS Conquering Project (GACP, Phase I: 2010-2014, Phase II: 2015-2020). In the project, three measures are implemented, such as great improvements of the coverage of HIV/AI...

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Autores principales: Ma, Shizhao, Chen, Yi, Lai, Xiulan, Lan, Guanghua, Ruan, Yuhua, Shen, Zhiyong, Zhu, Qiuying, Tang, Shuai
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9249227/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35776707
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0270525
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author Ma, Shizhao
Chen, Yi
Lai, Xiulan
Lan, Guanghua
Ruan, Yuhua
Shen, Zhiyong
Zhu, Qiuying
Tang, Shuai
author_facet Ma, Shizhao
Chen, Yi
Lai, Xiulan
Lan, Guanghua
Ruan, Yuhua
Shen, Zhiyong
Zhu, Qiuying
Tang, Shuai
author_sort Ma, Shizhao
collection PubMed
description To control the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in China, Guangxi government launched the 5-year Guangxi AIDS Conquering Project (GACP, Phase I: 2010-2014, Phase II: 2015-2020). In the project, three measures are implemented, such as great improvements of the coverage of HIV/AIDS education, promotion of HIV voluntary counseling and testing, and enhancement of antiretroviral treatment. In this paper, we explore the effects of the three measures of GACP by construction of a Susceptible-Infected-Diagnosed-Treated population compartments model and via evaluation of the basic reproduction number derived from the model. A computational framework is developed for estimating the model parameters based on the HIV surveillance data, with application of the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method and Nonlinear Least Squares method. By estimating the new infections and evaluating the basic reproduction number, we find that the implementation of the three measures of GACP has a significant effect on controlling the rise of HIV/AIDS cases and the epidemic trend. Compared with HIV voluntary counseling and testing, strengthening HIV/AIDS education and expanding the coverage of antiretroviral treatment show a greater impact on HIV/AIDS epidemic control, which provides a reference project for other provinces with a similar epidemic situation in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. At the same time, our research fills the current research gap for the evaluation of large-scale AIDS prevention and control projects in developing areas.
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spelling pubmed-92492272022-07-02 Predicting the HIV/AIDS epidemic and measuring the effect of AIDS Conquering Project in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Ma, Shizhao Chen, Yi Lai, Xiulan Lan, Guanghua Ruan, Yuhua Shen, Zhiyong Zhu, Qiuying Tang, Shuai PLoS One Research Article To control the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in China, Guangxi government launched the 5-year Guangxi AIDS Conquering Project (GACP, Phase I: 2010-2014, Phase II: 2015-2020). In the project, three measures are implemented, such as great improvements of the coverage of HIV/AIDS education, promotion of HIV voluntary counseling and testing, and enhancement of antiretroviral treatment. In this paper, we explore the effects of the three measures of GACP by construction of a Susceptible-Infected-Diagnosed-Treated population compartments model and via evaluation of the basic reproduction number derived from the model. A computational framework is developed for estimating the model parameters based on the HIV surveillance data, with application of the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method and Nonlinear Least Squares method. By estimating the new infections and evaluating the basic reproduction number, we find that the implementation of the three measures of GACP has a significant effect on controlling the rise of HIV/AIDS cases and the epidemic trend. Compared with HIV voluntary counseling and testing, strengthening HIV/AIDS education and expanding the coverage of antiretroviral treatment show a greater impact on HIV/AIDS epidemic control, which provides a reference project for other provinces with a similar epidemic situation in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. At the same time, our research fills the current research gap for the evaluation of large-scale AIDS prevention and control projects in developing areas. Public Library of Science 2022-07-01 /pmc/articles/PMC9249227/ /pubmed/35776707 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0270525 Text en © 2022 Ma et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Ma, Shizhao
Chen, Yi
Lai, Xiulan
Lan, Guanghua
Ruan, Yuhua
Shen, Zhiyong
Zhu, Qiuying
Tang, Shuai
Predicting the HIV/AIDS epidemic and measuring the effect of AIDS Conquering Project in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
title Predicting the HIV/AIDS epidemic and measuring the effect of AIDS Conquering Project in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
title_full Predicting the HIV/AIDS epidemic and measuring the effect of AIDS Conquering Project in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
title_fullStr Predicting the HIV/AIDS epidemic and measuring the effect of AIDS Conquering Project in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the HIV/AIDS epidemic and measuring the effect of AIDS Conquering Project in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
title_short Predicting the HIV/AIDS epidemic and measuring the effect of AIDS Conquering Project in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
title_sort predicting the hiv/aids epidemic and measuring the effect of aids conquering project in guangxi zhuang autonomous region
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9249227/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35776707
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0270525
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