Does the sixth wave of COVID‐19 break in Okinawa?

BACKGROUND: We aimed to forecast possible situations of the COVID‐19 spreading for Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. METHODS: The VSIIR model is proposed to extend the SIIR model to include vaccine effects where the parameter [Formula: see text] denotes the vaccination rate and is treated as a control pa...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Tomochi, Masaki, Kono, Mitsuo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022
Materias:
Preliminary Report
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9249941/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35800642
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgf2.550
Descripción
Sumario:BACKGROUND: We aimed to forecast possible situations of the COVID‐19 spreading for Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. METHODS: The VSIIR model is proposed to extend the SIIR model to include vaccine effects where the parameter [Formula: see text] denotes the vaccination rate and is treated as a control parameter on which possible situations for Okinawa would depend. RESULTS: It is shown that the infection ends without spreading if [Formula: see text] is satisfied where [Formula: see text] refers to the antibody duration, [Formula: see text] for infection and [Formula: see text] for vaccination, respectively. CONCLUSION: It is important to set a vaccination policy that can save lives and maintain daily life at the same time.

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